I Remain Bearish The 10 Year Note

22 Dec in Bitcoin, Blog, Bonds, commodities, currencies, futures trading, Mike Seery

10 Year Note Futures---The 10 year note in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 124/13 while currently trading at 123/16 as I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 123/24 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss at the 125/00 level as I will give this more room than the 2 week high as I still think there is a lot of room to run to the downside in this market.

The United States has now experienced 3 straight quarters of 3% GDP growth which has not happened in over 10 years as we did not experience one 3% GDP number during the 8 years of the Obama administration as growth certainly is coming back to the United States and I think we can get as high as 4%/5% growth in 2018 which is a very bearish fundamental factor for bond prices.

The 10 year note currently is yielding about 2.49% as I still think we can trade as high as 3.50% in the next 12 months as the stock market continues to hit record highs on a daily basis as I see no reason for these extremely low interest rates to stay at these levels for much longer so continue to play this to the downside as I will be looking at adding more contracts on any type of price rally.

I will recommend lowering the stop loss after next week's trade as 2017 is almost complete with the next major level of support around the 122/15 level as I think volatility will remain extremely low in next week's trade, but come 2018 you will see volatility come back into this market in my opinion so stay short.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

 

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