Mike Seery's Closing Commodity Comments 9-10-13

in Seery Futures Exclusive Newsletter

Grain Futures--- The grain market was mixed this afternoon with corn rallying $.05 in the December contract closing at 4.69 awaiting Thursdays USDA crop report while yesterday’s crop progress report showed a decline in the good/excellent rating by 2% with 98° temperatures which is a record here in Chicago on this date pushing prices slightly higher going into this critical and I do mean critical crop report. It’s amazing how hot it’s here in the Midwest as we are in mid-September and we are at 98°, however the real question is will it be detrimental to the soybean crop as prices were down 1 penny today at 13.48 trading as low as 13.40 still advising traders to sit on the sidelines as I do think this gap at 13.31 will be filled it just might take the report for that to be accomplished.

 Wheat futures for the December contract were up $.05 at 6.46 a bushel with the contract lows about $.10 away also waiting for new data coming out from the report hopefully showing some bullish fundamentals as the last report basically was bearish across the board with higher carryover and the production levels. In my opinion this is one of the most anticipated crop reports I can remember and the one thing I’m really focused on is the carryover level in soybeans and corn remembering the fact that we are estimating around 200 million in soybeans around 2 billion in corn and those numbers can be reduced very quickly or added to very quickly just like they did in the soybean report last month by dropping by 75 million bushels in 30 days.

There was a report out last March when the USDA said that they found 400 million more bushels of corn sending corn down $.80 in 2 days with back-to-back limit downs so you never know what the USDA will come up with & that’s why you must under trade these markets in case something like that happens minimizing your risk when you are wrong. I’m advising traders to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what this report states and go from there and I do think this report will dictate what the trend will be for the rest of the year. TREND: MIXED –CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING –RISK--HIGH



Precious Metal Futures-- The precious metals sold off sharply today as it looks like the United States will not attack Syria as the Russians have made an agreement with the Syrian government about transferring their chemical weapons into international hands or Russian hands depending on who you believe. In my opinion Premier Putin the dictator of Russia who now is in charge is making President Obama look like an absolute clown since Syria and Russia are in this together.

That news came out this morning making the United States look extremely weak in my opinion sending gold prices down $22 at 1,365 an ounce retesting last Friday’s low before the monthly unemployment came out sending gold up $20 while investors put their money back in the S&P 500 once again today and like I said now that the Russians are in charge everybody can sleep at night. Silver futures actually held in their pretty well today finishing down $.65 which is just a normal day in that commodity closing right around 23.05 an ounce as I still do believe silver prices are underpriced and I do think with demand around the world for electronics and the stock markets continuing to move higher it could push silver prices back up to the $30 price level in my opinion.

The U.S dollar was basically unchanged having very little effect on the commodity markets as the news really was about Syria and the fact that Premier Putin is 2 for 2 against the United States with last month’s capture of Edward Snowden getting & receiving asylum in Russia and we do nothing about it, and now Russia comes up with the agreement with Syria with the United States on the sideline and I say to myself where is Ronald Reagan when we need him. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT –RISK--HIGH



Sugar Futures--- Sugar futures in the October contract were up 14 points trading higher for the 4th consecutive trading currently trading at 17.15 a pound now trading above its 20 & 100 day moving average for the 1st time in quite a while and in my opinion sugar prices will re-test the next resistance at 17.50 & possibly hit 4 month highs. Many of the commodity markets were sharply lower today but sugar is continuing its bullish momentum as all the bearish news is already in the market. As I’ve been talking about in previous blogs I am bullish sugar prices especially with extremely high crude oil prices at this time and I do think prices will reach 17.50 as the giant bear market might finally be over here at least in the short term.

Sugar prices are at 3 1/2 week highs with outstanding chart structure allowing you place a tight stop below the 10 day low of 16.28 risking around $900 at today’s prices as volatility in my opinion will start to come back into this market which is been nonexistent for several months. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


Coffee Futures- Coffeefutures re tested 4 year lows today finishing lower by 140 points at 116.65 & traded as low as 115.70 still continuing to trade in a sideways 14 day trading channel with outstanding chart structure & I can’t remember of a time with such low volatility but I do believe prices could start to rally just like sugar prices have been doing in the last couple of weeks. I am stubborn sometimes & I am sticking my neck out here recommending & taking a chance at buying coffee in the December contract and placing the stop loss at 114 risking around a $1,000 if the trend continues to go down.

The 20 day moving average in coffee is at 119 while the 100 day moving average is at 129 meaning there could be buy stops at those levels helping put some volatility back into this market to the upside.  I like the bullish momentum in some of the other soft commodities so maybe coffee will start to join the party. TREND: SIDEWAYS –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT



                              What Does The RSI Indictor Tell You?  ---  LOOK AT THE HOG CHART


   The RSI oscillator ranges from 0 to 100 and when a commodity is deemed to be at overbought levels when the RSI approaches the 70 level and beyond meaning if the oscillator has an overbought condition of 92 that is higher and even more of an overbought condition then the 70 level and could mean that its getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a short term pullback. On the other hand if the RSI approaches 30 or below that is an indication that the commodity may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. The closer to zero the more oversold the commodity has become and the odds can increase for a kickback. If you are using this indicator you will be trading counter trend meaning that   you are always buying in a down market and selling in an up market or using the oscillator to determine when to take profits. In my opinion this indicator should be used with other indicators when establishing a position or when exiting a trade. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

If you are looking for a futures or option  broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com   Skype Address: mike.seery3




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There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.




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