Mike Seery's Daily Commodity Report 10-31-17

31 Oct in Blog, Bonds, commodity consulting, commodity consulting commodities, commodity trading, corn, currencies, dow jones futures, futures, futures trading, heating oil futures, Mike Seery, NASDAQ 100 futures, natural gas futures, oats, option trading Crude oil futures, option trading S&P 500, seeryfutures, soybean meal, soybean oil, soybeans, unleaded gasoline futures, wheat

Mexican Peso Futures---The Mexican Peso in the December contract is higher by 30 points currently trading at 5177 as I have been recommending a bearish position originally from the 5421 level then recommending adding another position around 5240 & if you took those trades the stop loss has now been lowered to 5276 as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis therefore the monetary risk will be lowered.

 

For the bearish momentum to continue we have to break last Friday's low of 5127 in my opinion as I will possibly be looking to add another short position in the next couple of days as the risk/reward will be in your favor once again due to the fact that prices basically have gone sideways over the last 10 trading days.

The Peso is trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend remains negative as I still think prices will break the 50 level in the coming weeks ahead as there is still room to run to the downside in my opinion so stay short & place the proper stop loss.

The U.S dollar is slightly higher in today's trade still right near a 3 month high as that trend is to the upside at the present time and remember when you trade the commodity markets the trend is your friend & trading with the path of least resistance is the most successful way over the course of time in my opinion.TREND: LOWER–CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID---IMPROVING

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil Futures--- Crude oil futures in the December contract are currently unchanged at 54.15 a barrel after trading higher for the last 3 trading sessions hitting a new contract high in last Fridays trade as I've been recommending a bullish position from around the 53.15 level & if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10 day low of 50.87 as the chart structure will improve tremendously in Thursday's trade therefore tightening up the stop loss.

 

Oil futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis all due to the fact of strong demand coupled with the fact that prices are riding the coattails of the U.S stock market which continues to hit all-time highs telling you that worldwide economies and especially the United States economy are improving.

The U.S hit a 3.00% GDP growth the first time in 9 years which is a very good sign for oil prices and commodities over the long haul in general so continue to play this to the upside and you are not involved wait for some type of price dip before entering therefore lowering the monetary risk as I do think there's a possibility prices could touch the $60 level down the road.

Heating Oil and gasoline are right near contract highs as well as they have been incredibly strong over the last several months and if you notice at your local gas station prices are at their highest levels in months.TREND: HIGHER–CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID---IMPROVING

 

 

 

 

 

Corn Futures--- Corn futures in the December contract is currently lower by 2 cents at 3.47 a bushel hitting a 1 week low still stuck in a 9 week tight consolidation with extremely low volatility as harvest is only 54% complete which is behind the 5 year average of around 75% as there are still approximately 7 billion bushels of corn out in the fields.

 

At the present time I'm not involved in this market as I am only looking at a possible bullish position as I think the downside is limited as the upside breakout is 3.55 as the chart structure is excellent at the present time. In my opinion prices look to retest the October 12th low of 3.42 which is just an eyelash away as I think the low volatility will continue until harvest is complete which is still around 3 weeks away so look at other markets that have better potential than corn at the present time.

Corn prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend remains to the downside as wheat has hit a fresh contract low in today's trade currently at 4.20 as that looks to head a little bit lower possibly down to the $4 level as well as there is just no bullish fundamental news to push prices higher as the large money manage funds are heavily short corn and wheat.TREND: LOWER–CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

 

 

 

 

Wheat Futures--- Wheat futures in the December contract are trading lower for the 5th consecutive session down another 6 cents at 4.18 a bushel hitting a fresh contract low as it looks to me that prices are going to test the $4 level in the coming days ahead

 

. At the present time I'm not involved in wheat but I do think prices are headed lower, however historically speaking we are starting to squeeze blood out of a turnip at these levels, but I do think $4 will be tested soon.

Prices are still trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the winter wheat crop is off to an excellent start as ideal weather conditions in the Great Plains of the United States continues to pressure prices here in the short term & if your short a futures contract place the stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 4.43 risking around $0.25 or $1,300 per contract plus slippage & commission as chart structure will not improve for another 4 trading days as corn and wheat are both following one another to the downside.

 

Large money manage funds are heavily short wheat and think lower prices are still ahead & they might be right as the trend clearly is lower while getting stronger on a weekly basis as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as that would be counter trend trading.TREND: LOWER–CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

 

 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

 

 

 

 

S&P 500 Futures--- The S&P 500 in the December contract is currently up 6 points at 2574 reversing yesterday's moderate losses to the downside as I still remain bullish the entire equity market as I think higher prices are ahead for the rest of 2017 as we enter the strong holiday season.

 

If your long a futures contract continue to place the stop loss under the 10 day low standing at 2542 as that will not change for another 6 trading sessions so your going to have to accept the monetary risk, however the earning season is upon us and they have been outstanding as I think that trend is going to continue as I still think the 2600 level will be broken in the coming weeks ahead.

The United States experienced a 3.00% GDP growth for the first time in 9 years and there are estimates that if the tax cuts come to fruition we could possibly have a 5% GDP which tells me this market has huge upside potential as the United States is growing for the 1st time in nearly a decade which is a terrific thing to see in my opinion.

The S&P 500 and all of the equity sector is trading far above its 20 and 100 day moving average as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as I'm extremely bullish this market as this has been the strongest trend in 2017 and could remain that way for years to come due to the fact of a pro growth administration.TREND: HIGHER–CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

 

 

 

 

Cotton Futures --- Cotton futures in the December contract is unchanged at 68.64 as the harvest in the southern part of the United States is around 46% complete which is right near the 5 year average as a frost in West Texas could affect nearly 500,000 bales helping support prices here in the short-term.

 

The United States planted around 12 million acres which was another record as that is why we should still produce a terrific crop despite the frost as we have been stuck in a 9 week consolidation as the break out to the upside is the October 24th high of 70.20 as that is the level I will be looking at a bullish position as at the current time as a pennant flag formation is starting to develop on the daily chart.

Cotton prices are trading slightly above their 20 day & right at their 100 day moving average looking to move higher in my opinion as the 70 level has been touched on about 1/2 a dozen times, but unable to break through on a closing basis so keep a close eye on this market as all of the bad fundamental news may have already been reflected into the price at the present time.

Cotton remains in a channel with a choppy trend so be patient as a possible break out to the upside is looming in my opinion as I still remain bullish many commodity sectors as prices look very cheap going into 2018. TREND: MIXED–CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

 

 

 

 

 

What Is A Pennant Flag Chart Pattern ? A technical charting pattern that looks like a flag with a mast on either side. Flags result from price fluctuations within a narrow range and mark a consolidation before the previous move resumes.

Likewise, "pennant" formations are usually treated like flag formations because they are very similar in appearance, tend to show up at the same place in an existing trend, and have the same volume and measuring criteria.

Flags and pennants are among the most reliable of continuation patterns and only rarely produce a trend reversal. The only difference between the two patterns is that a flag resembles a parallelogram (or rectangle) marked by two parallel trend lines that tend to slope against the prevailing trend.

The pennant, however, is identified by two converging trend lines and more horizontal which resembles a small symmetrical triangle.

The important thing to remember is that they are both characterized by diminishing trade volume and though different, the measuring implications are the same for both patterns as demonstrated in the above illustration.

 

 

 

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-312-224-8140 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

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