Mike Seery's Limit Up Commodity Report 11-10-17

10 Nov in Blog, Bonds, commodity consulting, commodity consulting commodities, commodity trading, corn, currencies, dow jones futures, futures, futures trading, heating oil futures, Mike Seery, NASDAQ 100 futures, natural gas futures, oats, option trading Crude oil futures, option trading S&P 500, seeryfutures, soybean meal, soybean oil, soybeans, unleaded gasoline futures, wheat

Mexican Peso Futures---The Mexican Peso futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 5185 while currently trading at 5211 up about 26 points for the trading week still experiencing extremely nonvolatile trading action as I have been recommending 2 positions over a couple months with an average price around 5330 & if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss at the 10 day high standing at 5238 which is just an eyelash away.

For the bullish momentum to continue we still have to break the October 27th low of 5127 which seems like a mile away at this time due to the low volatility as now the Peso is trading above its 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed, however I will continue to place the proper stop loss & if we are clipped I will move on & look at other markets that are beginning to trend.

The U.S dollar is still at a 3 month high as many of the currencies have been going sideways in recent weeks including the Peso as we are heading into the holiday markets which generally keeps a lid on prices across the board unless some type of economic situation develops.

TREND: --LOWER---MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: ---EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Futures--- Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,269 an ounce while currently trading at 1,285 up about $16 for the trading week holding major support on multiple occasions around the 1,264 level as it looks to me that a possible rounding bottom might be taking place in this commodity.

I am not involved in gold, however I am looking at a possible bullish position as prices are right near 3 week high with excellent chart structure therefore the monetary risk is relatively low for such a volatile commodity.

 

Gold prices are now trading above their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher as I do have a bullish bias in silver as that commodity looks very cheap in my opinion so keep a close eye on gold as we could be involved in a bullish position in next week's trade.

 

Gold prices have held support in recent weeks despite the fact that the U.S dollar is at a 3 month high & if that trend should reverse and start to move lower that would be a positive fundamental situation towards gold prices as I still think many of the commodity sectors are under priced as I will not take any short positions as we head into 2018 as the volatility in gold still remains remarkably low as we basically have gone nowhere over the last 6 weeks, however I think a trend to the upside is looming.

TREND: --MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: ---EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Futures--- Natural gas futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.98 while currently trading at 3.21 up about 23 points for the trading week hitting a 6 week high all due to extremely cold temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States.

If you take a look at the daily chart there is a price gap that was created last Monday at 3.00/3.05 as I do think there's a good chance that will be filled as I'm not involved in this market at the present time, however I do think a bottom was created on November 1st at the 2.84 level.

Natural gas prices basically have gone nowhere over the last 5 months with a couple of false breakouts as I do think a bottoming formation is at hand as we start to enter the extremely volatile winter season when prices can have tremendous price spikes to the upside due to record cold temperatures so take a look at the monthly chart & you will understand what I'm talking about.

Natural gas prices are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend has turned higher as I will keep a close eye on this market as the energy sector as a whole has turned very bullish due to strong demand.

TREND: --HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: ---POOR

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

 

 

 

 

Soybean Futures--- Soybean futures in the January settled last Friday in Chicago at 9.86 a bushel while currently trading at 9.87 basically unchanged for the trading week still stuck in a 4 week consolidation as I'm currently not involved in this market, however I am looking at a possible bullish position in next weeks trade.

 

Soybean prices on Thursday reacted negatively off of the USDA crop report which estimated around 4.4 billion bushels produced in the United States in 2017 which was pretty much expected, however the corn number was extremely bearish adding almost 300 million bushels sending corn to a new contract low therefore putting pressure on soybean prices, however traders are now focused on the South American weather condition known as La Niña the weather phenomena which could have an impact on the 2018 crop.

The chart structure has improved tremendously due to the fact that we have gone nowhere over the last 4 weeks as I am bullish most commodity sectors and I won't take a short position in soybeans as I also think the downside is very limited as prices are trading slightly below their 20 day but slightly above their 100 day moving average as this trend is mixed to neutral at the present time so be patient and wait for the true breakout to occur which is still about 20 cents away in my opinion, while at the present time I do not have any grain recommendations.

TREND: --MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: ---SOLID

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver Futures--- Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.83 an ounce while currently trading at 17.04 up about 20 cents for the trading week as I still have a bullish bias in silver as prices historically look cheap as I will be looking at a bullish position in Monday's trade if prices close above 17.31 while then placing the stop loss under the 2 week low which stands at 16.64 risking around $0.70 or $3,500 per large contract or $700 per mini contract plus slippage & commission.

 

Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is to the upside in this market & has acted stronger than gold in recent weeks as solid demand is starting to support prices as volatility still remains very low as I don't think that's going to last much longer.

Silver prices have held major support around the 16.60 level on multiple occasions despite the fact that the U.S dollar still is at a 3 month high which is a negative influence, however silver prices have held its own in recent weeks and I think the next trend will be to the upside as I will not take a short position as I think the downside is very limited. If the 17.31 level is broken then we should retest the 17.50 area which is the 7 week high & if that is broken I think we could hit the $18 range rather quickly as I think there's a lot of pent-up demand for silver at these depressed levels.

TREND: --MIXED---HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: ---SOLID

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil Futures--- Crude oil futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 55.64 a barrel while currently trading at 57.17 up about $1.50 for the trading week based on 2 reasons political unrest in the country of Saudi Arabia which is the largest producer of oil in the world coupled with the fact of strong worldwide demand continuing to push prices higher.

 

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 53.15 level and if you took the trade the stop loss in Monday's trade will be raised to 53.89 as the chart structure next week will improve on a daily basis therefore lowering the monetary risk as this trend is strong & is getting stronger on a weekly basis in my opinion.

 

Oil prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend clearly is to the upside as I will be recommending adding to this position once the risk/reward becomes in your favor, but at this point in time that is not the situation so just stay long the original contract & let's see what next week's trade brings.

Oil prices are starting to ride the coattails of the U.S stock market which is right near all-time highs as improving worldwide economies continue to push up certain sectors so stay long & continue to place the proper stop loss as who knows how high prices can go as I do think $60 level is a realistic area.

TREND: ---HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: ---IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

 

 

 

 

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What Is A Rounding Bottom Chart Pattern ? A chart pattern used in technical analysis, which is identified by a series of price movements that, when graphed, form the shape of a "U". Rounding bottoms are found at the end of extended downward trends and signify a reversal in long-term price movements.

This pattern's time frame can vary from several weeks to several months and is deemed by many traders as a rare occurrence.

Rounding bottom looks similar to the cup and handle pattern, but does not experience the temporary downward trend of the "handle" portion. The initial declining slope of a rounding bottom indicates an excess of supply, which forces the stock price down.

The transfer to an upward trend occurs when buyers enter the market at a low price, which increases demand for the stock. Once the rounding bottom is complete, the stock breaks out and will continue in its new upward trend.

 

 

 

 

Wheat Futures--- Wheat futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.25 a bushel while currently trading at 4.29 up about 4 cents for the trading week as I'm not involved in this market, but if you are short a futures contract place the stop loss above the 2 week high which stands at 4.32 which is just an eyelash away as prices are right near a 2 week high.

 

Wheat prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is to the downside, but honestly speaking it basically is mixed as the USDA crop report yesterday was slightly friendly as demand is starting to come back into this market at these relatively cheap prices stopping the bearish momentum.

 

For the bearish trend to continue we have to break the October 31st low of 4.16 as we should start to enter the volatile winter season as we are off to ideal start to the winter wheat crop as weather in the Great Plains of the United States is favorable at this time, but volatility certainly has come to a crawl in the grain market especially wheat.

Large money manage funds are still heavily short wheat and corn which hit a contract low in yesterday's trade due to a very bearish report as they still think prices are headed lower , but in my opinion I think the downside is very limited so avoid this market at the present time.

TREND: ---LOWER---MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: ---EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

 

 

Sugar Futures---Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 14.38 while currently trading at 14.90 a pound up about 50 points for the week as I am now recommending to add a 2nd position at this level as the chart structure has improved tremendously as the stop now has been raised to 14.15 and will also improve in 3 trading sessions.

The original recommendation was around the 14.57 level and if you take both of these trades the total risk on both contracts is around $1,200 plus slippage and commission as I do believe the risk/reward are in your favor.

The next major level of resistance is the September 15th high of 15.20 and if that is broken I think prices could head much higher as sugar is riding the coattails of unleaded gasoline and crude oil prices as the commodities are starting to gain some ground which is an excellent thing to see as I am bullish heading into 2018.

Sugar prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that trend is higher as we continually grind higher as this is the 6th consecutive up session all with very modest gains as the momentum has turned north.

TREND: ---HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: ---EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

 

 

Coffee Futures---Coffee futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 127.50 while currently trading at 129.80 a pound up about 230 points for the trading week as I have talked about the December contract but expiration is upon us so let's focus on March as I will be looking at a bullish position if prices break the 5 week high of 131.75 on a closing basis.

 

If that situation does occur I would place the stop loss under the 10 day low which stands at 124.80 risking around 700 points or $2,800 per contract plus slippage and commission as the risk is high as coffee is a very large contract.

The chart structure will start to improve early next week therefore lowering the monetary risk as prices are now trading above their 20 day moving average, but still below their 100 day which stands at 135.40 as volatility still remains extremely low.

At the current time my only bullish soft commodity recommendation is in the sugar market which is higher for the 6th consecutive session today as I am becoming bullish most commodity sectors so keep a close eye on coffee as we could be involved in this sleeping giant come next week's trade.

TREND: ---MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: ---EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

 

 

Cotton Futures--- Cotton futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 68.77 while currently trading at 68.94 basically unchanged for the trading week still stuck in an 8 week tight consolidation as I'm looking at a bullish position if prices break yesterday's high of 69.67 & if that does occur place the stop loss at the 2 week low standing at 68.07 risking $800 per contract plus slippage & commission.

 

The chart structure in cotton is outstanding at the present time as prices reacted pretty neutral off of the USDA crop report which was released yesterday stating that the U.S will produce around 21.38 million bales which was pretty much expected as this market looks to turn bullish in my opinion.

Cotton prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend has turned to the upside as the risk/reward are in your favor in my opinion as the breakout could happen in Monday's trade so keep a close eye on this market as we could be involved in next week's trade. The agricultural markets have been going sideways for quite some time as the downside I think is very limited as I'm bullish the commodity markets as I will not take a short position in cotton as I think historically speaking prices look cheap.

TREND: ---MIXED---HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: ---EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

 

 

Corn Futures--- Corn futures in the December contract are down 6 cents this week at 3.42 a bushel continuing its bearish momentum hitting a fresh contract low yesterday reacting negatively off of the USDA crop report estimating 175.4 bushels per acre which is an all-time high as production numbers were raised 298 million bushels to 14.578 billion as this report was extremely bearish in my opinion.

 

At the present time I'm not involved in corn and I will not take a short position, however after that I would have to think that corn prices will probably move $0.10/$0.15 lower in the coming weeks ahead as there is nothing bullish about this commodity except the fact that unleaded gasoline is hitting another contract high today.

The volatility in corn is extremely low at the present time as there will be very little fresh fundamental news to push prices higher except for possible short covering as the large money managed funds are heavily short wheat and corn so look for lower prices ahead.

Corn prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is to the downside as I still think prices are limited as were talking $0.10 or $0.15 which is not much as in the summertime that is a one day rally or selloff as I still think 2018 there will be a silver lining in this commodity as we just need to plant less acres than we have in the past otherwise this is going to put farming corn in jeopardy down the road in my opinion.

TREND: --LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: ---EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

 

 

S&P 500 Futures--- The S&P 500 in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2582 while currently trading at 2576 lower for the 2nd consecutive session down about 6 points for the trading week as I still remain bullish the entire equity market at the present time.

 

If you are long a futures contract continue to place the stop loss at the 10 day low which stands at 2562 which is very close to today's price levels as prices have stalled out right near all-time highs in recent trading days as the tax cuts may have been stalled for another year as that has put pressure on prices this week.

In my opinion Congress is absolutely ridiculous as no Democrat will vote for the tax cuts and the Republicans can't get out of their own way as this is an embarrassing situation as something should be very easily accomplished and might not be until next year for some reason.

Corporate earnings have been outstanding recently as I think that will continue especially seasonally speaking as we enter the holiday market as prices generally continue to climb so continue to play this to the upside while placing the proper stop loss as I see no reason for a bearish trade at this time despite the fact of a possible tax cut delay.

TREND: --HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: ---EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-312-224-8140 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

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