Mike Seery's Limit Up Commodity Report 11-17-17

17 Nov in Blog, Bonds, commodity consulting, commodity consulting commodities, commodity trading, corn, currencies, dow jones futures, futures, futures trading, heating oil futures, Mike Seery, NASDAQ 100 futures, natural gas futures, oats, option trading Crude oil futures, option trading S&P 500, seeryfutures, soybean meal, soybean oil, soybeans, unleaded gasoline futures, wheat

Gold Futures---Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,274 an ounce while currently trading at 1,284 up about $10 for the trading week right near a 4 week high. I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above 1,290 while then placing the stop loss under the 10 day low standing at 1,269 risking $2,100 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding at the present time due to very low volatility.

Gold prices are trading above their 20 & 100 day moving averages as the trend is to the upside as I am also looking at entering into a bullish silver position as the U.S dollar is near a 4 week low helping push prices up here in the short term.

Gold prices have gone nowhere over the last month or so with extremely low volatility and I don't think that's going to last much longer so keep a close eye on this market to the upside and if you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I am bullish the commodity markets as they are very cheap compared to the U.S stock market as I think the volatility will be to the upside not to the downside as demand will start coming back into these products.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY---LOW

 

 

 

 

Silver Futures--- Silver futures in the December contract is currently trading at 17.08 after settling last Friday in New York at 16.87 up about $0.20 for the trading week right near a 4 week high looking to breakout possibly in next weeks trade.

I will be recommending a bullish position if prices break the 4 week high which now stands at 17.27 while then placing the stop loss under the 2 week low standing at 16.78 risking about $2,500 on the large contract or $500 on the mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding at the present time as the volatility has come to a crawl.

The U.S dollar is near a 4 week low as that is helping support the precious metals at the current time & if you look at the daily chart there is a pennant flag formation in silver which is very interesting in my opinion as a breakout is looming.

If prices break 17.27 I think we will retest the October 16th high of 17.50 as I still think before year-end we could be trading between $18/$19 an ounce as I will not take a short position in silver as I think historically speaking prices look very cheap especially with worldwide economies improving which should pick up demand for many different commodity sectors including silver.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY---LOW

 

 

 

 

Wheat Futures---Wheat futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.49 a bushel while currently trading at 4.41 down about 8 cents for the trading week continuing its bearish momentum looking to possibly retest the October 31st low of 4.33 in the coming days ahead.

 

I am not involved in this market, but it does look to me that lower prices are ahead as large money managed funds are heavily short wheat as they believe a bottom has not been created just yet as prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside.

Corn prices hit another contract low this week as that is also putting pressure on wheat prices as ideal weather conditions in the Great Plains of the United States could produce an excellent crop once again as there is very little bullish fundamental news to push prices higher at the present time except for short covering.

Volatility in wheat is extremely low just like it is in many commodity sectors as we have entered the holiday markets as Thanksgiving is next week as I don't see anything exciting in this commodity until 2018 arrives or unless some type of weather market develops, but at the present time I think the bearish trend continues in a slow grinding manner as I am not recommending any type of bullish position at this time.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY---LOW

 

 

 

 

Soybean Futures--- Soybean futures in the January contract are currently trading at 9.76 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 9.87 continuing their bearish momentum.

The grain market remains negative across the board as private estimates of next year's acres are around 89.6 million which is only slightly below 2017 which could produce another 4.4 billion bushels which is frustrating in my opinion due to the fact that we have massive supplies now & on the horizon unless some type of weather situation next year cuts yields.

Soybean prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average, however the chart structure is poor as I am currently not involved in any of the grains as prices are at major support on the daily chart.

The problem with soybeans and corn is the fact that we continue to plant near record acres year after year while producing record crops almost every single year as we did this year once again in soybeans as worldwide supplies continue to balloon.

The country of Brazil also produces a record crop every year as for the American farmer to survive we need higher prices & if we produce 4.4 billion bushels in 2018 soybean prices could be much lower from today's price levels in my opinion.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY---LOW

 

 

 

 

Cotton Futures--- Cotton futures in the March contract are currently trading at 69.63 after settling last Friday in New York at 69.14 up about 50 points for the week as I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above 69.67 while then placing the stop loss under the 10 day low standing at 68.34 risking around $700 per contract plus slippage and commission.

The chart structure in cotton is outstanding at the present time as we are close to breaking out of an 8 week tight consolidation as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend has turned higher as the risk/reward is in your favor in my opinion.

Harvest in the southern part of the United States should be around 75% complete after this weekend as that should be wrapped up in the next several weeks as we will now focus on 2018's crop as demand has come back into this commodity as that is the main reason why prices have stopped their bearish trend.

The U.S dollar is near a 4 week low as that will start to help the agricultural markets as exports should start to increase especially if that trend continues to the downside so make sure that you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade as a proper money management technique.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING

VOLATILITY---LOW

 

 

 

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Corn Futures--- Corn futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.56 a bushel while currently trading 3.52 down about 4 cents for the trading week hitting a fresh contract low still reacting negatively off of the last USDA crop report which added nearly 300 million bushels to production numbers in 2017 as I still see very little activity in this commodity for the rest of 2017.

One interesting fact about corn is that there is a record short position from large money managed funds at the present time as they think prices will continue to move lower and I have to agree with them as there is very little bullish fundamental news to push prices up except for short covering.

Harvest in the Midwestern part of the United States should be around 85% complete as of this weekend as that should be wrapped up in the next 2 weeks as we will focus on next year as there was more disappointing news announced today with private estimates stating that there will be 91.41 million acres planted in 2018 which could produce a crop around 14.6 billion bushels which is a negative factor despite today's positive trade.

Corn prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is to the downside, however I will not take a short position as prices are limited in my opinion as we might head down to the 3.40 level, but we are squeezing blood out of a turnip at these cheap levels.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY---LOW

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil Futures--- Crude oil futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 56.74 a barrel while currently trading at 56.50 down slightly for the trading week, but dropped nearly $3 from the contract high that was hit in last weeks trade as the volatility certainly has come to life.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 53.15 level and if you took the trade the stop loss has now has been raised to 54.81 as the chart structure has improved tremendously due to the fact that prices have gone sideways over the last 2 weeks.

The U.S dollar is right near a 4 week low as the commodity markets have come to life as I am now recommending several bullish positions including gold, silver, sugar, and as I have talked about in many previous blogs I think the commodity markets are incredibly cheap compared to the U.S stock market which is starting to push other sectors to the upside.

Oil prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is higher as I still think theirs a possibility that prices will be trading in the low $60 range before year-end so continue to place the proper stop loss while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as its nice to see other sectors finally joining the party to the upside as there is still a lot of room to run in my opinion.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

 

 

S&P 500 Futures---- The S&P 500 futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2579 while currently trading at 2580 as volatility has finally entered this market due to the fact of the possibility that the tax cuts may have been delayed, but the House of Representatives passed that yesterday as we will have to see what the Senate will do in the coming weeks ahead.

If you are long a futures contract the stop loss remains at 2562 on a closing basis only as prices were below that level at one point only to close above that critical area while then experiencing a tremendous rally in Thursdays trade so continue to place the stop loss at that price & let's see what next week trade will bring.

Next week is Thanksgiving which generally is very quiet & positive as I think that will be the exact same situation this year as prices still are above their 20 and 100 day moving average, but we need to break the November 9th high of 2594 to continue the bullish momentum as I do think the tax cuts are not only bullish the S&P 500 but bullish the commodities across the board & if you look at Friday's action we had breakouts in many different sectors as this is good news in my opinion as we head into 2018 and as I've talked about in many previous blogs I will not take any bearish positions.

The tax cut for corporations is massive as it will be lowered to 20% which means these companies will be making even more money than they are at the present time as there is still room to run to the upside in my opinion.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

 

 

Sugar Futures--- Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 14.96 while currently trading at 15.37 a pound up about 40 points for the trading week hitting a 15 week high continuing its bullish momentum to the upside due to strong ethanol demand.

I was recommending the original position from around 14.57level & then also recommending to add to that position in last weeks trade around 14.90 as the average price is about 14.74 & if you took those trades place the stop loss in Monday's trade at 14.43, however in Tuesday's trade it will be raised to 14.62 as I might be looking at another bullish trade possibly next week.

The next major level of resistance is the August 1st high of 15.82 & if that is broken I think we can head up to the 17 level as I'm very bullish the commodity sectors as they have finally shown a spark of life in today's trade as the tax cuts in my opinion will act as a stimulus program to all of the agricultural markets.

Sugar prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the trend is to the upside as major support was held around the 13.70 level over the last several months so continue to place the proper stop loss as who knows how high prices can go.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY---LOW

 

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

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