Mike Seery's Limit Up Commodity Report 11-25-17

25 Nov in Blog, Bonds, commodity consulting, commodity consulting commodities, commodity trading, corn, currencies, dow jones futures, futures, futures trading, heating oil futures, Mike Seery, NASDAQ 100 futures, natural gas futures, oats, option trading Crude oil futures, option trading S&P 500, seeryfutures, soybean meal, soybean oil, soybeans, unleaded gasoline futures, wheat

Dollar Index Futures--- The U.S dollar in the December contract settled last Friday at 93.57 while currently trading at 92.92 lower for the 2nd consecutive session hitting a 6 week low as I'm looking at a possible short position, however the chart structure is poor at the present time as the 10 day high stands at 94.54 as the risk is around $1,600 which is too much for this currency at this time in my opinion.

 

The chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade as I will look at a short position on any type of price rally as a double top was created at the 95 level as the bearish trend has finally come about in my opinion as that is very good news for the commodity markets which are starting to come to life once again in today's trade as a lower U.S dollar helps U.S exports therefore spurring demand.

The next major level of support is around 92.50 & if that is broken I think we can head all the way to the 91 level rather quickly so keep a close eye on this market for a possible short next week as I would like to see the risk around $1,000 per contract plus slippage & commission as then the risk/reward would be in your favor in my opinion.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

 

 

S&P 500 Futures--- The S&P 500 in the December contract is up 7 points on this Black Friday continuing its bullish momentum which does not surprise me as the holiday markets are generally very bullish prices as I see this trend continuing throughout the Christmas holiday in the month of December so continue to stay long while placing the proper stop loss as a top has not been created in my opinion.

The S&P 500 settled last Friday in Chicago at 2576 while now trading at 2601 and if you have followed any of my previous blogs you understand that I think 2700 is coming at year end as this trend is incredibly strong as I see no reason to sell.

If your long a futures contract continue to place the stop loss on closing basis at 2562 as the chart structure will start to improve in 4 days therefore lowering the monetary risk as prices are still trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average as I still see a bullish trend in 2018 as well especially if the Senate confirms the tax cuts which the House of Representatives has already accomplished.

Corporate earnings continue to fuel this market higher as I think you will see some excellent sales numbers coming out next week stating that Black Friday could be another record so stay long and use the proper stop loss as this gravy train continues.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY---LOW

 

 

 

 

Wheat Futures---Wheat futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.43 a bushel while currently trading at 4.38 down slightly for the trading week still stuck in a tight 4 week consolidation as I'm currently not involved, but I will be looking at a bullish position if prices break 4.50 while then placing the stop loss under the contract low which was hit on October 31st at 4.33 risking around $0.17 or $850 per contract plus slippage and commission.

If you have been reading my previous blogs you understand that I will not take short positions as I think the downside is very limited despite the fact that prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is still negative coupled with the fact that the winter wheat crop is off to an excellent start as ideal weather conditions in the Great Plains of the United States should produce another excellent crop.

The U.S dollar is down another 40 points today hitting a 6 week low as I think that is the wrench in the closet which could finally start propelling the agricultural markets to the upside so keep a close eye on this market as we could be involved in next week's trade as the chart structure is outstanding.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY---LOW

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil Futures--- Crude oil futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at 56.71 a barrel while currently trading at 58.74 up over $2 for the trading week right near a 2 ½ year high as I have been recommending a bullish position originally from around the 53.15 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss at 55.00 as the chart structure will improve 2 days from now.

Prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis as the U.S dollar is trading lower by 45 points this afternoon hitting a 6 week low as that is a terrific thing to see as the commodity markets are starting to react to the upside.

As I have talked about in many previous blogs I do think crude oil prices will be trading in the low 60s as massive worldwide demand continues to push up prices & I don't see that situation stopping anytime soon as the U.S has a 17 year low employment rate and a booming economy as that is going to continue to spur demand despite the fact that we are producing more and more oil on a monthly basis so stay long & continue to place the proper stop loss as I am bullish all commodity sectors at the present time.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

 

 

 

 

What Is Chart Structure & Why Is It Important ? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk.

Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.    

 

 

 

 

 Sugar Futures--- Sugar prices are trading higher for the 2nd consecutive session in the March contract currently trading at 15.45 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 15.37 up slightly for the trading week continuing its bullish momentum right near a 4 month high.

I've been recommending 2 bullish positions with an average price around 14.74 & if you took the trade place the stop loss under the 10 day low standing at 14.73 as the chart structure will not improve for another 8 trading sessions so you will have to accept the monetary risk at this time, however the bullish momentum is getting stronger on a weekly basis as sugar prices are riding the coattails of crude oil which hit another contract high today.

The next major level of resistance is the August 1st high of 15.82 & if that is broken prices could trade into the 17 level as I still think prices look cheap especially on a monthly basis.

Strong demand for ethanol continues to push sugar prices higher and strong demand for oil continues to push that commodity higher and I don't think that will stop anytime soon so continue to play this to the upside as I will also be recommending adding a 3rd contract possibly next week so keep a close eye on this market as adding to winners & getting out of losers is the way to trade over the long haul in my opinion.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

 

 

Gold Futures--- Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,296 while currently trading at 1,287 down about $9 dollars for the trading week as I've recommended a bullish position from around the 1,292 level and if you took the trade place to stop loss under the 10 day low standing at 1,269 as the chart structure remains excellent at the present time.

The U.S dollar has dropped about 120 points over the last 2 trading sessions which has had very little influence on gold prices which is very surprising in my opinion as I'm also recommending bullish positions in silver and platinum as the same situation has occurred in those markets as well, but I will continue to place the proper stop loss as the chart structure will improve in 3 trading sessions therefore lowering the monetary risk to around the 1,275 level.

If you have read my previous blogs you understand that I am bullish the commodity markets as crude oil hit another contract high today and has been the leader over the last several weeks as I still think gold prices will crack the 1,300 level as this was a short holiday trading week with light volume as next week that situation will change.

I you are not involved I would still recommend this trade at today's price levels risking around $2,000 per large contract or $700 per mini contract plus slippage & commission.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

 

 

Soybean meal Futures---Soybean meal futures in the January contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 320 while currently trading at 326 a ton up about 600 points for the trading week right near a 5 week high as I'm not involved in this market, but I will be looking at a bullish position once the chart structure improves as the 10 day low stands at 311 as the risk is around $1,500 at the present time which is too much in my opinion for this commodity.

Harvest is completed in the Midwestern part of the United States for soybeans as soybean meal is a byproduct as that is a good thing if you're bullish this commodity as seasonal lows generally are created in the month of October or November as that's basically what has occurred this year as well as the next major level of resistance is the October 13th high of 331 as demand has entered this market just like it has in several other commodity sectors.

The U.S dollar is down about 120 points over the last 2 days which is helping push up soy meal prices despite the fact that wheat and corn are right near contract lows as they are different commodities and can move in opposite directions so play this to the upside once the risk/reward are in favor which could develop in next weeks trade.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

 

 

Cotton Futures--- Cotton futures in the March contract is trading higher for the 2nd consecutive session up another 80 points at 71.93 after settling last Friday in New York at 69.35 up about 260 points for the trading week as I've been recommending a bullish position from around the 70.50 level & if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10 day low which remains at 68.62 for the next 4 trading days.

Harvest is around 90% complete in the southern part of the U.S as I still think higher prices are ahead due to the fact of strong worldwide demand coupled with the fact that the U.S dollar has now hit a 6 week low which is definitely supporting cotton prices here in the short term.

Cotton prices are at levels we haven't seen since September 11th with the next major level of resistance near the 74 area as there is room to run in my opinion as the chart structure is starting to become poor due to the fact of the recent run-up in prices, however when the original recommendation took place the chart structure was outstanding as we had just broken out of a 9 week tight consolidation pattern.

Volume was light in today's trade due to the fact of the shortened holiday week as Thanksgiving was yesterday and Black Friday is today as many people are shopping instead of trading as we will be back to a regular schedule Monday morning.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

 

 

 

 

Silver Futures---Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.37 an ounce while currently trading at 16.99 down about $0.38 for the trading week as I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 17.30 level & if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10 day low which now stands at 16.82 as the chart structure is outstanding at the present time.

 

Silver prices are trading right at their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend still remains higher in my opinion despite the fact that silver sold off this week as the U.S dollar was sharply lower hitting a 6 week low which is generally supportive silver & the precious metals, but had no impact in this weeks trade.

For the bullish momentum to continue we have to break last weeks high of 17.37 and then bust the 17.50 level in my opinion as the volatility certainly is starting to increase which is a terrific thing to see as I think the commodities in general will start heading higher as we enter 2018 so stay long & place the proper stop loss.

If you are not involved I am still recommending it even at today's price levels while risking around $1,000 per large contract or $200 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the risk/reward are in your favor.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Futures--- Natural gas prices in the January contract traded lower for the 4th consecutive session ending the week on a sour note hitting a 1 year low after settling last Friday in New York at 3.19 while currently trading at 2.91 down 28 points for the trading week all blamed on extremely warm weather in the Midwestern part of the United States therefore hurting demand.

At the present time I'm not involved in natural gas as I've written about this on several occasions as I thought the price gap would be filled and that did happen in this weeks trade as I still see slightly lower prices, but I will not take a short position as I think we could trade down to the 2.75 level possibly next week as then I will start to look at a bullish position as we enter the month of December.

At the present time the state of Illinois hit almost 65° yesterday which is remarkable as we are going to have another warm week ahead of us, but weather can change very quickly, however I'm not recommending a bullish position at this time. Natural gas prices are trading under their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend in the short term is negative and probably will not change until the cold weather arrives as that will occur its just a matter of time.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

 

 

Soybean Futures--- Soybean futures in the January contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 9.90 a bushel while currently trading at 9.93 still stuck in an 8 week consolidation as there's very little fundamental news to dictate short-term price action in my opinion as I'm currently not involved in the grain market.

Soybean prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average after experiencing a false breakout in last weeks trade to the downside as harvest is complete in the Midwestern part of the United States as that is a good thing if you are bullish as seasonal lows generally can occur in the month of October or November as we will now start to focus on the South American crop and the U.S crop come 2018.

The U.S experienced another record year producing about 4.4 billion bushels as carryover levels are also extremely high as the fundamentals are bearish, however all of that bad news has been digested into the price & I do think higher prices are ahead in 2018, but I will wait for the true break out to occur which won't happen until we crack the October 13th high of 10.13 as the volatility should start to increase in the months ahead.

At the present time I'm looking at a bullish soybean meal position which is very strong as soybeans are riding the coattails of that commodity as the U.S dollar has now hit a 6 week low as that is very important to the agricultural sector as it helps exports therefore increasing demand as the chart structure will start to improve in next weeks trade.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY---INCREASING

 

 

 

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

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