Live Cattle Futures—Live cattle futures in the February contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 126.20 while currently trading at 124.55 down about a 165 points for the trading week as prices look to break out of a 5-week consolidation pattern in my opinion. I will be recommending a short position if prices close below 123.12 which was hit on November 13th while then placing the stop loss at the November 29th high of 127.15 as the risk would be around $1,200 per contract plus slippage and commission.
Cattle prices are now trading below their 20-day but still far above their 100 day moving average as prices are up about 20% from the September low as this has been a very strong bullish trend until the last month as prices looked to have topped out in my opinion.
The risk/reward would be in your favor if the 123.12 level is broken as the volatility should increase as historically speaking the winter season for cattle prices can experience large price swings on a daily basis so look to play this to the downside in my opinion.
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