Seery Futures Daily Commodity Comments 4-29-19

Seery Futures Daily Commodity Comments 4-29-19
Seery Futures Daily Commodity Comments 4-29-19

Soybean Futures—Soybean futures in the July contract are unchanged at 8.67 a bushel as heavy rains have entered the midwestern part of the United States as we are awaiting the weekly crop planting progress report which will be released this afternoon.

If you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I am bearish soybean prices as the large money managed funds are short a record 130,000 contracts as they truly believe lower prices are ahead. Fundamentally speaking this market remains extremely weak as massive supplies worldwide coupled with the fact of very weak demand because of the fact that we have not had a trade agreement with China and that doesn’t look too come to a positive solution anytime soon.

Soybean prices are trading under their 20 and 100 moving average as clearly the trend is to the downside as we are at yearly support & if we can break the 8.60 level I think prices could head down to 8.10 as I see no reason to be a buyer of this commodity.

Volatility in soybeans is average at the current time, however as we progress into the summer months that will expand tremendously generally to the upside so if you are short a futures contract stay short in my opinion.

TREND: –LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

Orange Juice Futures—Orange juice futures in the July contract has traded lower 6 out of the last 7 trading sessions down another 115 points at 102.40 as prices are right near a 10 year low. If you have been following my previous blogs you understand that I am bearish orange juice and I think we will crack the 100 level with the possibility of going down to 90 rather quickly as I see no reason to be bullish juice at the present time as weak demand an oversupply issues continue to put pressure on prices.

Juice is trading far below their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend clearly is to the downside as we continually grind lower on a daily basis as harvest in the state of Florida is in full swing as ideal weather conditions continue.

If you are short a futures contract I would place the stop loss above the 2 week high standing at 109 as an exit strategy, but I still see more room to run to the downside as the commodity markets and especially the soft commodities continue their bearish trends.

TREND: –LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

S&P 500 Futures—The S&P 500 in the June contract is trading higher for the 2nd consecutive session up another 4 points at 2945 as the gravy train continues to the upside as investors are awaiting the highly-anticipated quarterly earnings report from Google which will be released after the Bell.

The S&P 500 is clearly the strongest trend to the upside out of all of the commodity markets as the majority remain in bearish trends, however money flows continue to go into U.S equities and I don’t think that’s going to end anytime soon.

I am very bullish the stock market as I’ve written about it on multiple occasions as I still think we will break the all time highs possibly in tomorrow session as there is still significant room to run to the upside as fundamentally speaking the U.S economy is firing on all cylinders showing a 3.2% first-quarter GDP which was considered exceptional.

The S&P 500 is trading far above its 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis if you are long a futures contract continue to place the stop loss under the 2 week low standing at 2889 as an exit strategy as I see no reason to be short.

 

TREND: –HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

Wheat Futures—Wheat futures in the July contract is currently trading lower by 5 cents at 4.37 a bushel right near a contract low as the bearish trend in wheat and the grain market in general continues on a weekly basis.

In my opinion I believe wheat prices will test the $4 level as the large money managed funds are short about 68,000 contracts as they also believe lower prices are ahead. The next level of resistance is around the 4.25 area as we await the planting progress report which will be released later this afternoon but the entire wheat sector remains bearish.

Wheat prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as clearly the trend is to the downside as the volatility still remains exceptionally low as we can generally grind lower on a weekly basis.

If you are short a future contract I would place the stop loss at the 4.63 level as an exit strategy as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis therefor the monetary risk will also be lowered so stay short in my opinion.

TREND: –LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

TRADING THEORY–– If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly.

My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day.

In futures and options trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.

 

Copper Futures—Copper futures in the July contract finished up 60 points to close around 2.9000 a pound in a non-volatile trading manor this Monday afternoon in New York. I have talked about copper on several occasions as an interesting setup is starting to develop on the daily chart.

I will be recommending a bearish position if prices break the March 25th low of 2.840 while then placing the stop loss above the contract high which was hit on April 17th at 3.00 as an exit strategy as the risk on a large contract would be $4,000 plus slippage and commission or $2,000 per mini contract plus slippage & commission.

Copper prices are trading below their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average which also stands at critical support around the 2.83 level as a breakout is looming in my opinion. Historically speaking copper can experience large price swings as the volatility will not remain this low for much longer so look to play this to the downside.

The commodity markets in general continue their bearish trends except for a select few as I think copper prices may have finally topped out.

TREND: –MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

Sugar Futures—Sugar futures in the July contract settled sharply lower finishing down 2.53% or 32 points at 12.33 a pound looking to break out of an 8 week tight channel formation.

If you take a look at the daily chart the 13.00 level was touched on multiple occasions only to fail as now they are testing the bottom end of the trading range as I will be possibly looking at a short position tomorrow if the 12.25 level is broken on a closing basis.

The entire soft commodity sector remains bearish as they continually grind lower on a weekly basis coupled with the fact that anything grown in the country of Brazil at the current time remains very weak.

Coffee prices are right at a 14 year low while orange juice prices hit a 10 year low today as sugar looks to move lower in my opinion as I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position at this time. Sugar prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend has turned as prices look to test the contract low which was hit on January 3rd at 11.99 in my opinion.

TREND: –LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

 

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