Seery Futures Daily Commodity Comments For 10-24-19

Seery Futures Daily Commodity Comments For 10-24-19
Seery Futures Daily Commodity Comments For 10-24-19

Corn Futures—Corn futures in the December contract is trading higher by 1 cent at 3.89 a bushel in a very quiet trade this Thursday in Chicago. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 3.80 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss at 3.78 as an exit strategy as this market is looking for some fresh fundamental news to push prices in either direction.

The volatility in corn at the present time is low as harvest is in full swing in the Midwestern part of the United States as prices are now trading at their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average as the trend is mixed as this trade has stalled out. At the present time I also have bullish recommendations in wheat and soybean meal as the commodity markets across the board look to have finally bottomed in my opinion.

The large money managed funds are still short around 60,000 contracts as they think lower prices are ahead and if any bullish news comes about that could spur short covering pushing prices above the $4.00 level.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

Wheat Futures—Wheat futures in the December contract is trading lower by 1 cent at 5.20 a bushel as I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 4.82 level and if you took that trade place the stop loss at the 10 day low at 4.91, however tomorrow that stop will be raised to 5.04 as the chart structure is excellent.

Prices are trading above their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend remains to the upside as weather conditions in the Great Plains of the United States will have the main influence on prices in the coming weeks ahead.

For the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break the October 21st high of 5.35 in my opinion as the volatility remains average as I think that will expand to the upside in the coming months ahead. If you take a look at the daily chart the uptrend line still remains intact so continue to play this higher while placing the proper stop loss as the U.S dollar is trading at a 2 month low which is a bullish fundamental factor towards prices.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

 

S&P 500 Futures—The S&P 500 in the December contract is trading higher for the 2nd consecutive session up another 4 points at 3010 as this market looks to move higher in my opinion.

Fundamentally speaking technology stocks rebounded from early losses yesterday and led to a higher close in the Nasdaq 100 Index on strength in Apple which rose +1.3% to a new all-time high after Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $289 from $247 per share. If you are long a futures contract I would place the stop loss at the 10 day low standing at 2941 as an exit strategy , however the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis therefor the monetary risk will be lowered.

The S&P 500 is trading above its 20 & 100 day moving average telling you the trend is to the upside as I do believe prices will break the all time high which stands at 3032 in the coming days ahead as I see no reason to be short. Earnings season is upon us as generally speaking they have beaten estimates as the U.S economy is firing on all cylinders and is the envy of the world so continue to play this to the upside.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

 

When Should You Enter Into A Trade? I have been asked this questions on multiple times over the course of my 25 year trading career as I try to find the trend before entering into a bullish or bearish position as my rule states. I like to buy or sell a commodity when prices hit a 4 week high or low while still maintaining the proper risk management of 2% of your account balance on any given trade as it must also have excellent chart structure.

Trading with the trend I think is the most successful way over the course of time and having a 4 week high or low helps establish that the trend has started, now there are a lot of false breakouts and that’s why you must manage risk as picking bottoms and picking tops is a very foolish game over the course of time.

Generally speaking if prices hit a 4 week low or high that means the moving averages are also in that direction signalling that a trend is being formed.

 

 

 

Orange Juice Futures—Orange juice futures in the January contract is currently trading higher by 25 points at 101.40 this Thursday in New York as prices look to be bottoming in my opinion. Prices are trading right at their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at the 106 level as the volatility has come to a crawl.

Juice prices have been stuck in a 7 week consolidation pattern as I will be looking at buying a futures contract if prices break the October 8th high of 107.05 while then placing the stop loss at the August 19th contract low of 96.90 as the risk would be around $1,500 per contract plus slippage & commission.

As I have written about in previous blogs the longer the consolidation the stronger the break out as we enter the volatile winter season which could produce a frost in the state of Florida which would send prices sharply higher as that situation has occurred multiple times in the past, however weather conditions at the present time are ideal so be patient and wait for the break out to develop.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

Copper Futures—Copper futures in the December contract is trading higher for the 2nd consecutive trading session continuing its bullish momentum to the upside as the entire precious metal sector is higher across the board. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 2.6440 level and if you took that recommendation place the stop loss under the October 1st low of 2.5150 as an exit strategy.

Copper prices are trading above their 20 &100 day moving average as the trend is to the upside with the next major level of resistance at the September 16th high of 2.7065 as copper prices are starting to follow the U.S stock market higher as I think there is more room to run to the upside.

If prices break the 2.71 level I then will raise the stop loss to the 10 day low therefor the risk would be reduced significantly as I am also looking at a bullish platinum trade which also looks to move higher so stay long as there is room to run.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

 

Sugar Futures—Sugar futures in the March contract is currently trading at 12.25 a pound reversing some of the losses that we witnessed over the last several days as prices declined yesterday falling to a fresh 1-month low.

Negative carry-over from last Thursday’s forecast from Rabobank continued to weigh on sugar prices after Rabobank said that it expects “significant” sugar exports from India in 2021 as ample rains boost India’s 2020/21 sugar crop. At the present time I am sitting on the sidelines as this market remains very choppy as I am advising clients to avoid and look at other markets that are beginning to trend like the precious metals.

Sugar prices are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend is slightly lower as the volatility remains low as well, however prices are near major support as I think the downside is limited as I will not go short so be patient. At the current time my only soft commodity recommendation is a bullish cotton trade which continues to climb on a weekly basis, but these commodities can go in opposite directions as that is happening at this time.

TREND: MIXED–LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

Lean Hog Futures—Hog prices in the December contract is currently trading lower by 72 points at 65.10 hitting a 3 week low looking to fill the price gap on the daily chart which was created on September 12th at 61.20 as there still could be some weakness ahead.

A head and shoulders top may have developed over the last 2 months as that is a bearish fundamental factor towards lower prices despite the fact that China’s General Administration of Customs released September import data which showed around 162,000 tonnes of pork imported last month which was was 71.6% over last year’s level while their January through September import total comes to 43.6% over last year.

At the current time I do not have any livestock recommendations, however the fact that China has lost 250 million hogs due to swine flu and that is also spreading to other countries I think the downside is limited at the low 60 level. This market has been very choppy over the last couple of months so avoid it at the current time and wait for the risk/reward to be more in your favor as the volatility remains very high.

TREND: MIXED–LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

 

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