Seery Futures Commodity Comments For 6-21-19

Seery Futures Commodity Comments For 6-21-19
Seery Futures Commodity Comments For 6-21-19

Silver Futures—Silver futures settled last Friday in New York at 14.80 an ounce while currently trading at 15.32 ending the week on a sour note down about $0.13 for the day, but finishing up over 50 cents for the week as prices are near a 3 month high.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 14.93 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the contract low which was touched on May 28th at 14.26 as an exit strategy, however come next week I will raise that stop therefor lowering the monetary risk. The 10 year note hit 1.99% this week as that is a multi-year low and a positive fundamental factor towards silver and the precious metals as I also have a bullish palladium trade which is higher once again in today’s action.

The U.S dollar is hovering right near a 3 month low as that is also bullish towards silver and the commodities as the tide has turned for this commodity as I think a long bottom is in place and I still think there’s a good chance that we will crack the 16 level in the coming weeks ahead as the volatility certainly has increased as well so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss as I think there is still room to run.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

Gold Futures—Gold futures in the August contract is currently trading at 1,400 hitting a 6 month high after settling last Friday in New York at 1,344 an ounce up over $55 for the trading week all on concerns of a conflict brewing with the country of Iran.

The U.S dollar has hit a 3 month low as well as helping support prices as the fundamental situation for gold has changed very quickly as strong demand continues to push up prices as I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market, but as I’ve written about in previous blogs I still think gold is going higher as I see no reason to be short.

At the present time I have bullish recommendations in silver and palladium as I’m keeping a close eye on platinum to the upside as the 10 year note hit 1.99% this week hitting a multi-year low as that is extremely supportive towards gold prices.

The next major level of resistance is around the 1,450 area as there is still room to run to the upside as you have to remember the all time high was hit in September of 2011 above the 1,920 level and if you look at the monthly chart in my opinion it looks very bullish.

If you have a futures contract place the stop loss under the 10 day low which stands at 1,325 as an exit strategy, however that will be raised on a daily basis starting next week.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

 

Palladium Futures—Palladium futures are ending the week on a positive note up $15 at 1,495 after settling last Friday at 1,461 up about $35 for the trading week and traded as high as 1,525 in yesterdays session before profit-taking sent prices lower.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,388 level and if you took that trade the stop loss has now been raised to 1,342, however in Monday’s trade that will climb to the 1,372 level as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis therefor the monetary risk will be lowered.

The stop loss is still about $15,000 away as that just tells you how crazy of a market this can be as palladium historically speaking and be very trendy and that’s exactly what is happening here as we are trading  above the 20 and 100 day moving average as I still think we will test all time highs possibly in next week’s trade.

If you’re long a futures contract stay long as I see no reason to be short as the entire precious metal sector is bullish except for platinum as gold and silver prices have broken out as that will be supportive towards palladium as who knows how high prices can go.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

 

Copper Futures—Copper futures are currently trading right near a 4 week high at 2.7040 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 2.6295 as I had been recommending a bearish position getting stopped out around the 2.7030 level earlier in the week as now I’m looking at a possible bullish position.

If you take a look at the daily chart a rounding bottom might be at hand as the 10 year note is yielding 1.99% as that is a bullish fundamental factor towards copper due to the fact that that should strengthen the housing market.

Copper is now trading above its 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average as the trend is mixed, however it has broken the downtrend line and it looks to head higher in my opinion following silver and the rest of the precious metals to the upside.

The U.S dollar is also right near 3 month low as I will be waiting for a possible pullback therefor lowering the monetary risk as the volatility still remains relatively low for such a historically volatile commodity. In trading you must be nimble as I had been bearish copper for quite some time, but when the tide turns you must be on alert as this market looks to have finally bottomed out in my opinion.

TREND: —-MIXED—HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

 

Live Cattle Futures—The cattle market in the August contract is trading lower for the 3rd consecutive session after settling last Friday in Chicago at 104.15 while currently trading at 102.75 hitting a fresh contract low in today’s trade.

I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 106.30 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss above the June 12th high of 107.17 as an exit strategy, however the chart structure will start to improve in next week’s trade. Feeder cattle prices are also hitting a fresh contract low today as corn prices remain very strong as higher feed costs generally speaking are negative towards feeder cattle prices as the entire livestock sector remains bearish in my opinion.

As I have talked about in many previous blogs I thought if we broke the critical contract low that we could test the 100 level and I think that will develop in next week’s trade as there a still further room to the downside.

One of the trading theories that I adhere to is when a commodity hits a contract low that generally means further contract lows are on the horizon continuing the bearish trend meaning never buy a market that’s at a contract low as that is counter trend trading and dangerous over the course of time so stay short.

TREND: —-LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

 

Orange Juice Futures—Orange juice futures in the September contract is currently trading at 103.30 after settling last Friday in New York at 106.30 down 300 points for the week as prices are still hovering right near a 4 week low.

At the present time I do not have any soft commodity recommendations as there is the possibility that orange juice prices are bottoming out in my opinion as we are right at the 50% retracement level from the contract low that was hit at the 94 level and then we went as high as 115 on June 14th so this could be setting up a bullish situation in my opinion.

Prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is lower to mixed, but wait for a better chart pattern to develop before entering as this really is a choppy trend at the current time.

Generally speaking we are starting to enter the non-volatile season for orange juice as there is no possible frost that could develop in the State of Florida, however you still can have hurricanes later this year as that certainly could send a wrench into the closet, but for the current time look for other markets that are beginning to trend and as there are many.

TREND: —-LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

 

 

Corn Futures—Corn futures in the July contract which is considered the old crop and was grown in 2018 settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.53 of bushel while currently trading at 4.47 down about $0.06 for the trading week digesting the recent run up in prices in my opinion.

 

Corn prices have stalled out around the 4.50 area for the time being, however you have to remember we have had a 30% rally in 5 weeks as that is a tremendous move as we are awaiting some fresh fundamental news to dictate short-term price action as the rain has become old news having a smaller impact on prices at this time.

Estimates of the crop progress are pretty much completed come Monday as now we will have to await the USDA crop report which will be released in the 2nd week of July as that will certainly state how bad or good this crop will be in 2019. I still remain bullish as I still think higher prices are ahead, but you’re going to have to respect the volatility as we’re going to have large price swings on a daily basis to make sure you place the proper amount of contracts while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.

The G-20 Summit is next week and if there is some type of trade agreement with China that would certainly be bullish the grain market as I still believe production numbers in 2019 are going to be very poor.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

 

WHEN IS IT TIME TO SELL ? In my opinion if you are long a futures contract and you have lost 2% of your account balance on that trade exit and move on and look at other trends that are beginning as the theory states.

Generally speaking if you long a futures contract I would place the stop loss under the 2 week low which is also the 10-day low as well as an exit strategy as the theory states if a market has been going against you for that time frame that means that you are probably wrong so it’s time to move on.

Successful traders exit losing trades very quickly as its a mathematical certainty that you will have losing trades so you must manage them well as no exit strategy is 100% correct, but that’s one that I’ve been following for many years and I think it works well.

 

 

 

 

Soybean Futures—Soybean futures in the November contract which is considered the new crop and is currently being grown in the Midwestern part of the United States settled last Friday in Chicago at 9.23 a bushel while currently trading at 9.33 up slightly for the trading week still hovering near a 3 month high.

At the present time my only recommendation is a bullish soybean oil trade, but I do think the soybean complex is going higher at least in the short term & if you are long a futures contract I would continue to place the stop loss at the 8.75 level as an exit strategy as you’re going to have to give this some room as the volatility is high and will become even more violent  as summer is now upon us as today the summer solstice arrived which is the longest day of the year.

Traders going to keep a close eye on Mondays crop progress report as estimates are around 95% complete, but you have to remember just because you planted on June 20th don’t expect the same yields if you were planted on May 20th as we still could have many weather problems arise.

For the bullish momentum to continue we have to break June 18th high of 9.48 & if that does occur I think $10 would be in the cards as I see no reason to be short

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

 

 

Soybean Oil Futures—Soybean oil in the July contract is trading at 28.52 after settling last Friday in Chicago at 27.61 up about 90 points for the trading week as prices have now hit a 2 month high. Volatility in soybean oil remains low as the rest of the grain market is having much larger price swings than oil, but I think the volatility will start to increase as today is the 1st day of summer as the weather market is in full swing.

At the present time I’ve been recommending a bullish position from the 28.00 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the May 13th low of 26.21 as an exit strategy as I probably will raise the stop in next week’s trade.

One interesting fact is that the large money managed funds are still short around 25,000 contracts as they are also short soybeans as they still believe lower prices are ahead so if we could get some bullish fundamental news out of that crop report on Monday we might see higher prices ahead based on short covering alone so stay long as the risk/reward are still in your favor in my opinion.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

Platinum Futures—Platinum futures in the July contract settled last Friday at 804 an ounce while currently trading at 808 up about $4 dollars for the trading week as the precious metals were higher across the board this week, but platinum remains the weakest link.

Gold prices broke the 1,400 level today hitting a 6 year high on concerns that a possible conflict could develop with the country of Iran as a U.S drone was shot down sending shock waves throughout many different sectors, however it is not helping support platinum.

I will be recommending a bullish position if we close above the 833 level while then placing the stop loss under the Valentine’s Day low which was hit on February 14th at 786 as the risk would be around $2,500 plus slippage & commission, however at the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines.

Platinum prices are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average which now stands at the 844 level as I think prices look incredibly cheap especially compared to palladium and gold.

At the current time I have bullish recommendations in silver & palladium and I still think gold prices are going higher, but I don’t want to be overloaded in 1 sector, but I don’t see any reason to be short any of the precious metals as demand and interest have come back.

TREND: —-MIXED–LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

TWITTER—@seeryfutures

FREE TRIAL FOR THE LIMIT UP COMMODITY NEWSLETTER

Email: mseery@seeryfutures.com

If you’re looking to open a Trading Account click on this link www.admis.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.