Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Comments For 6-24-19

Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Comments For 6-24-19
Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Comments For 6-24-19

Silver Futures–-Silver futures in the July contract is currently trading higher by 3 cents at 15.32 an ounce following gold higher this Monday afternoon in New York in a relatively quiet trading session.

I’ve been recommending a bullish position from the 14.93 level and if you took that trade the stop loss has now been raised to 14.62 as an exit strategy as the chart structure will continue to improve on a daily basis therefor the monetary risk will continue to be lowered. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend remains strong as prices are still right near a 3 month high looking to break the critical 15.50 in my opinion.

At the present time I also have a bullish palladium recommendation which continues to go higher on a daily basis as I am also looking at a bullish platinum trade possibly this week as the whole precious metal sector remains bullish and looks to move higher in my opinion.

The 10 year note is currently yielding 2.02% as that is a bullish fundamental factor towards silver prices coupled with the fact that gold has now hit a 6 year high and looks to even move higher as I think that will start to support silver down the road so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

Palladium Futures—Palladium futures in the September contract is trading higher for the 2nd consecutive session up another $7 at 1,507 hitting a 3 month high as this market is extremely strong to the upside. I’ve been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,388 level & if you took that trade the stop loss has now been raised to 1,372, however in tomorrow’s trade will also be raised once again to 1,381 as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis therefore lowering the monetary risk.

As I have talked about in many previous blogs I still believe we are going to break the March 21st high of 1,563 possibly this week as the volatility remains very high as that situation will remain the same probably for the rest of 2019. Palladium prices are trading above their 20 and 100 moving average as the trend strong to the upside and if the 1,563 level is broken who knows how high prices could go, but it doesn’t look like a topping pattern is even close to being developed at this time so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss.

As I have talked about on many different occasions one of the main reasons why I recommended this trade was that there was a rounding bottom chart pattern formation which is bullish and is a very important pattern to understand and recognize.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

TRADING THEORY—This is an outstanding rule to understand as when a market trades limit down such as what cotton did in today’s trading session that tells you there is a high probability that prices will open lower on the open in tomorrow’s trading session as buying limit down is a fool’s game.

Remember when a market closes limit down there is also the chance of opening limit down the next day as that situation occurs frequently as the volatility when that situation happens explodes as that generally happens off of some type of report.

Also the exact opposite happens when a commodity goes limit up then you would see a higher probability that the next day’s opening will be sharply higher, now it doesn’t have to close higher but it will open higher so never sell limit up and never buy limit down as that is extremely dangerous in the next day’s trading session.

 

10 Year Note—The 10 year note in the September contract is trading higher by 10 ticks at 127 / 26 reversing some of the weakness that we experienced in last Friday’s trade as this market still remains bullish in my opinion.

I have been recommending 2 bullish positions with an average price of 124 / 25 and if you took those trades the stop loss tomorrow will be 126/24 and then in Wednesday’s trade will be raised to 126/31 as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis.

The yield at the present time stands at 2.02% as we did trade as low as 1.99% last Friday and I still think there’s a possibility that we could go to the 1.85% level as strong demand and higher interest rates compared to the rest of the world.

The 10 year note is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average as clearly this is one of the strongest to the upside out of all the commodity sectors and looks to move even higher so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss.

For the bullish momentum to continue we have to break June 20th high of 128/08 as then there might be the possibility of adding more contracts to the upside once the risk / reward become more in your favor.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

Gold Futures—Gold futures in the August contract is sharply higher this Monday afternoon in New York up another $22 at 1,422 an ounce right near a 6 year high as this market has absolutely exploded over the last month as we have now rallied about a $150 since May 30th.

At the current time my only recommendation out of the precious metals are a bullish palladium trade which exploded once again today and I’m also recommending a bullish position in silver which I think will finally wake up one of these days and join the party, but I do think as I’ve written about in many previous blogs I see no reason to be short gold as it looks to me that higher prices are ahead.

The next major level of resistance is all the way at the 1,450 level and if that is broken and we could go to 1,500 as there is so much uncertainty especially with the conflict now brewing between the United States and Iran and that doesn’t look to be going away anytime soon.

The commodity markets in general are coming to life and if you’ve noticed look at all the rallies that were witnessing including stocks, bonds, grains, precious metals, and the energies that are all starting to move in one direction as historically speaking some of these markets are incredibly cheap especially compared to the stock market so if you are long a futures contract stay long.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

Platinum Futures—Platinum futures in the July contract is currently trading higher by $3 at 814 an ounce in a relatively quiet trade especially compared to gold which is right near a 6 year high trading up by another $22 as the precious metals except for platinum have established bullish trends in my opinion.

At the current time I have bullish recommendations in silver and in the palladium market and I certainly think gold looks to move higher as well as I continue to keep an eye on platinum as I don’t understand why it is so cheap as I think a breakout is looming.

If platinum prices close above the 833 level which would be the 6 week high I then will be recommending to buy a futures contract while placing the stop loss under the contract low standing at 786 as the risk is around $2,500 per contract plus slippage and commission as it looks to me the prices are bottoming out.

If you take a look at the 6 month chart we continually bounce off that 790 level as I think that will hold especially the way the rest of the sector is acting as strong demand has come back and I think eventually it will come back into this market as I will keep a close eye on this market as we could be involved possibly in tomorrow’s trade as I will not go short.

TREND: —-MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

Soybean Futures–Soybean futures in the July contract finished higher by 6 cents at 9.09 a bushel as the crop progress report was released this afternoon showing that 85% of the crop has been planted which is way behind schedule coupled with the fact that the good to excellent rating was 54% compared to last year’s 75%, but all of this fundamental news has already been reflected into the price.

At the present time I am bullish soybean oil and I still think the entire soybean complex moves higher as the commodity markets in general are coming to life as you have to remember historically speaking some of these markets are very cheap especially compared to the U.S growth rate as I see no reason to be short beans.

Soybean prices are trading above their 20 & 100 day moving average with the next major level of resistance around the 9.50 level as weather will remain the main focus as we can continually rain in the state of Illinois, but at this point in time  perception is reality and at the current time the perception is that prices are going higher.

Large money managed funds are still short around 55,000 contracts as they bought that around 35,000 last week, however they still believe lower prices are ahead as they are currently counter-trend trading which I disagree with.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

 

Corn Futures—Corn futures in the July contract finished up 4 cents at 4.46 a bushel as the crop progress report was released this afternoon showing that 98% of the corn crop has been planted, however the good to excellent rating was only 57% which historically speaking is very low as we still have problems at the current time.

In my opinion I think the commodity markets look very bullish almost across the board as I think it is time to believe that the giant bearish trends that we have witnessed over the last several years are over with as prices look cheap compared to U.S growth rates as I do believe demand will come back especially if a trade agreement comes about with China.

For the bullish momentum to continue we have to break the June 17th high of 4.64 as I still see no reason to be short corn as there could still be several problems around the bend and if you are long a futures contract stay long.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

Soybean Oil Futures—Soybean oil futures in the July contract settled lower for the 2nd consecutive session down another 9 points at 28.35 as this market is still hovering right near a 2 month high.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 28.00 level & if you took the trade continue to keep the stop loss at the contract low which stands at 26.31 touched on May 13th as I want to give this trade some room as the volatility is going to expand tremendously in the coming weeks and months ahead.

I think the commodity markets in general look strong and want to move higher except for a select few as lower interest rates and a weakening U.S dollar are bullish fundamental factors towards are asset classes and especially the commodity markets.

Large money managed funds are still short around 25,000 contracts and if you get some type of bullish news prices should rally just on short covering alone as the crop progress report which was released this afternoon showing that there are still major concerns about yields as rain is entering the Midwestern part of the United States over the next 10 days.

TREND: —-HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

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