Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Comments For 7-6-20

Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Comments For 7-6-20
Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Comments For 7-6-20

S&P 500 Futures—The S&P 500 in the September contract is trading higher for the 5th consecutive session up another 53 points at 3,168 continuing its bullish momentum still riding the coattails of last week’s monthly unemployment number. At the current I’m not involved, but I do believe that all time highs will be tested once again as the Nasdaq-100 continues to hit all-time highs on the daily basis as this trend is to the upside as I see no reason to be short, however the risk/reward is not in your favor due to the high volatility to take a bullish or bearish position at this time.

The S&P 500 is trading above its 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside despite the fact that the Coronavirus continues to wreak havoc in Texas and Florida, but is having very little impact on the stock market as the fundamental and technical picture for this commodity remains to the upside. The United States economy was outstanding before this pandemic occurred earlier this year and if some type of vaccine comes about you will see the entire equity market and commodity sectors explode to the upside in my opinion.

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: HIGH

Soybean Futures—Soybean futures in the November contract is currently trading at 9.04 a bushel up $0.13 this Monday afternoon in Chicago hitting a 4 month high as weather is the main dictator of short-term price action as the 7/10 day weather forecast has 90° plus across the board as July and August are the critical months for soybean production numbers.

Traders are awaiting this afternoons crop progress report which will be released later today with estimates around 71% in the good/excellent category as the crop so far is an excellent condition, but we are entering the critical months and if the hot & dry weather persists for a long time then the crop would deteriorate significantly as now you’re starting to see a weather premium put into this market. I will be looking at a possible bullish position on any type of price replacement therefore lowering the monetary risk, however the 10 day low at the current time is about 55 cents away as the risk/reward is not in your favor to take the bullish position, but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as I do think higher prices are ahead.

Soybean prices are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend has turned quickly with the next level of resistance around the 9.25 area as that could be tested any day as the volatility certainly will expand tremendously in the coming days and weeks ahead. 

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

Silver Futures—Silver futures in the September contract is up $0.32 at  18.63 an ounce in a relatively volatile Monday afternoon in New York looking for some fresh fundamental news to push prices over the $19 level in my opinion.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 18.61 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low which now stands at 17.59 as an exit strategy as the chart structure has turned outstanding due to the fact that prices have really have gone nowhere over the last several weeks. Silver prices are still trading above their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend remains higher as the entire precious metal sector continues it’s bullish trend and I do think the commodity markets as a whole look to move higher.

The US dollar is trading higher by 63 points currently trading at 96.67 as that currency is hovering right near a 6-month low as that is a supportive fundamental factor towards silver. I see no reason to be short especially with the Federal Reserve continuing to add stimulus after stimulus program so stay long as I will possibly be looking at adding more contracts if we pass the 19.14 level which is the contract high as adding to winners and exiting losers quickly is the way of trade over the course of time in my opinion. 

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: HIGH


Corn Futures—Corn futures in the December contract is currently trading up 4 cents at 3.58 a bushel to start off the week in Chicago as traders are keeping a very close eye on the 7/10 day weather forecast which has hot temperatures across the board which certainly will continue to send high volatility into this commodity which we already experienced in last week’s trade.

Traders are awaiting the crop progress report which will be released later this afternoon as we are in the critical stages for production numbers as it looks to me that a short-term bottom is in place all due to the USDA crop report that stated that the United States planted around 4 million less acres.Traders are awaiting this afternoon’s crop progress report with estimates around 73% in good / excellent condition as the crop has flourished so far in 2020, however that can change very quickly especially if the hot and dry weather conditions continue for a long.

I will be looking at a bullish position on some type of price dip therefor lowering the monetary risk as I do believe a bottom is in place. Corn prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend has turned higher and if you take a look at the open interest it dropped over 23,000 contracts last week as that shows you that the large money managed funds did cover some of their short position so look to be a buyer. 

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

Cotton Futures—Cotton futures in the December contract is trading higher for the 5th consecutive session up another 34 points at 63.29 continuing its bullish momentum as hot and dry weather conditions in the southern part of the United States is concerning towards the developing crop.

I have been recommending a bullish position from the 62.20 level while placing the stop-loss under the June 23rd low of 58.55 as the chart structure will improve later this week therefor lowering the monetary risk. The next major level of resistance is all the way at the 65.00 level as there is room to run for this commodity as prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average and if you take a look at the daily chart the uptrend line remains intact so continue to play this to the upside as I also will be looking at adding more contract once the risk/reward improves.

The volatility just like the grain market will expand tremendously during the summer months as the risk will also increase exponentially so make sure if you are involved that you only risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade as this commodity can experience many limit up or limit down trading sessions. 

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

 

 

Live Cattle Futures—Cattle futures in the August contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session up another 62 points at 100.02 looking to test the most recent high which was hit on May 8th at 100.85 as prices are hovering right near a 4 month high. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 99.80 level and if you took this trade continue to place the stop loss at 94.75 as an exit strategy, however the chart structure will not improve for another 6 trading sessions. Cattle prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend has turned to the upside looking to break out of the critical 8-week consolidation and if you take a look at the daily chart a possible rounding bottom has been formed over the last month.

The commodity markets in general are starting to move higher due to optimism about the U.S economy coupled with the fact that the U.S dollar has now almost hit a 6 month low as that is a bullish fundamental factor towards all commodities. If the 100.85 level is broken I think we could test the 110 area in the coming weeks ahead so stay long and if you’re not involved wait for some type of price replacement before entering into a bullish position therefor lowering the monetary risk. 

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 


If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com 

 

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 Email: mseery@seeryfutures.com

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