Seery Futures Daily Commodity Comments For 7-7-19

Seery Futures Daily Commodity Comments For 7-7-19
Seery Futures Daily Commodity Comments For 7-7-19

Copper Futures—Copper futures in the September contract is currently trading higher by 150 points at 2.6760 a pound rebounding slightly from last Friday’s loss bouncing off of major support. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 2.7130 level & if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the contract low which was hit on June 7th at 2.6000 as an exit strategy.

The chart structure at the current time is excellent as prices have really have gone nowhere over the last 5 weeks, however for the bullish momentum to continue we will have to break the July 1st high of 2.7570 in my opinion.

At the current time I also have bullish recommendations in silver, platinum, and the palladium market as I still think the precious metals will continue their bullish trends in the coming weeks ahead.

Copper prices are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average as the trend is mixed as there were a couple of the reasons why I took this trade as there was a rounding bottom formation coupled with the fact that I thought the risk/reward was in your favor so stay long & continue to place the proper stop loss.

TREND: —MIXED–HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

Silver Futures—Silver prices in the September contract is trading higher by 10 cents at 15.10 an ounce reversing some of the steep losses that we witnessed last Friday.

The monthly unemployment number was released on Friday stating that we added 224,000 new jobs as that was construed as bearish for silver and the precious metals due to the fact that the Federal Reserve might not lower interest rates due to the strong economy. I believe we are in the beginning of a secular bullish trend for silver so continue to place the stop loss at 14.70 as an exit strategy as I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 14.93 level.

Silver prices are trading right at their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend is higher to mixed, but for the bullish momentum to continue we have to break the June 21st high of 15.62 in my opinion as the chart structure still remains excellent as the volatility historically speaking remains low.

In my opinion I still believe silver prices look cheap especially compared to gold prices which hit a 6 year high as I think there is significant room to run to the upside as I see no reason to be short silver or the precious metals.

TREND: —MIXED–HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

Soybean Oil Futures—Soybean oil futures in the December contract is currently trading higher by 23 points at  28.23 as soybean oil was sharply lower last Friday due to the fact that the EPA proposed a biodiesel use of 2.45 billion gallons for 2020 which was unchanged from 2019. That was disappointing to soy oil as most of the recent growth in demand for that byproduct has been in fuel use.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 28.50 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the contract low which was hit on May 13th at 26.96 as an exit strategy, however for the bullish momentum to continue we have to break the June 21st high of 29.32 as traders are awaiting this afternoon’s crop progress report.

Soybean oil is now trading slightly below its 20 & 100 day moving average as the volatility remains low.

At the present time this is my only grain recommendation, however I do believe corn prices are also going to head higher so continue to place the proper stop loss as I want to give this trade some room as I expect the volatility to increase substantially in the next couple of months.

 

TREND: —MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

Platinum Futures—Platinum futures in the October contract are trading higher by $12 at 823 an ounce reversing some of the sharp losses that we witnessed last Friday as I still remain bullish.

I have been recommending a bullish trade from around the 840 level & if you took that trade place the stop loss under the contract low which stands at 793 which was hit on May 30th as an exit strategy. For the bullish momentum to continue we have to break the July 1st high of 851 in my opinion as I still think a rounding bottom chart formation has occurred.

Platinum prices are trading right at their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average with stands at critical resistance at the 850 level as platinum is the weakest member out of the precious metal sector.

The U.S dollar hit a 3 week high as that has had a negative influence on prices over the last week or so, but I still believe that the 800 level will hold as prices are very cheap especially compared to gold. Platinum is trading almost $600 lower than gold which is an amazing statistic in my opinion as I think this commodity will start to catch up and narrow the spread.

TREND: —MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

Palladium Futures–Palladium futures in the September contract is trading lower for the 2nd consecutive session down $10 at 1,554 still hovering near the contract high as I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,388 level and if you took that trade the stop loss has now been raised to 1,501 as an exit strategy as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis therefor the monetary risk also will be lowered.

Palladium is trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average as this is the strongest precious metal out of the entire sector and has been in a bullish trend for several years. The next major level of resistance stands at the March 18th all time high at 1,599 and I still think we could possibly break that in this week’s trade as the volatility has come to a crawl over the last week or so which is shocking especially at these elevated price levels.

If you did not take the original trade do not chase this market as it is dangerous up at these levels, however if you are long stay long as I still think there is significant room to run to the upside as a top has not been created yet in my opinion.

TREND: —HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

 

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk.

Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

 

 

 

Coffee Futures—Coffee futures in the September contract is sharply lower for the 2nd consecutive session down another 450 points at 106 .60 a pound selling off due to the fact that frost concerns have waned at this time as harvest remains in full swing.

I am currently not involved in coffee as the risk/reward is not in your favor at this time, however if prices drop down to the 103 level I would be interested in buying a futures contract while placing the stop loss under the June 19th low of 96.25 as an exit strategy as the risk would be around $2,600 per contract plus slippage and commission.

Coffee prices are still trading above their 20 & 100 selling off nearly 900 points from Friday’s high as the 115 level on the daily chart has acted like cement and has sold off every single time over the last 6 months.

Currently my only soft commodity recommendation is a bullish sugar trade, however I do believe that the 14 year low which was hit on May 7th will hold as the long term bottom most likely is in place so look to play this higher on further weakness in my opinion.

TREND: —HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

Sugar Futures—Sugar futures in the October contract finished up 9 points at 12.45 a pound in a relatively quiet session experiencing an inside trading day on the daily chart. I have been recommending a bullish position from around 12.32 level & if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the contract low which stands at 11.82 as that was hit on May 23rd as an exit strategy.

Sugar prices have been stuck in the mud as we continually trade sideways & if we are still involved in this market next week I certainly will raise the stop loss therefor lowering the monetary risk.

Sugar prices are now trading under their 20 and 100 moving average as it keeps flip-flopping above and below those critical levels, but I still think the longer-term bottom is in place and if you took the recommendation stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss.

Fundamentally speaking  India’s SMA said last Monday that India 2019/20 sugar production will fall -14% y/y to a 3-year low of 28.2 MMT due to dry weather. India’s mereological department on Jun 24th said monsoon rains in India were 37% below normal helping support prices.

TREND: —MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

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