Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Comments For 9-3-19

Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Comments For 9-3-19
Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Comments For 9-3-19

Silver Futures—Silver futures in the December contract is trading higher by 32 cents at 18.66 up by 1.75% hitting a 2 year high continuing its bullish momentum to the upside with the next major level of resistance at the November 7th 2016 high of 19.00 as I think that area could be tested in this week’s trade.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 14.93 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the 2 week low which stands at 16.97, however in tomorrow’s trade that will be raised to 17.05 as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis therefor the monetary risk will also be lowered.

Gold prices are up about $12 this afternoon in New York which is helping support silver as I still think historically speaking prices look cheap so continue to play this to the upside and if you have read any of my previous blogs you understand that I think silver prices will be trading above the $20 range.

Silver futures are trading far above their 20 & 100 day moving average as this trend is strong to the upside as political concerns coupled with the fact that interest rates around the world continue to plunge on a weekly basis which is very beneficial toward silver prices so stay long.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

Mexican Peso Futures—The Mexican Peso in the September contract is currently trading lower by 10 points at 4970 as I have been recommending a bearish position over the last month or so from around the 5080 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss above the 2 week high at 5068 as an exit strategy.

The volatility in the Peso at the current time is very low as we continually grind lower on a weekly basis, however for the bearish momentum to continue we have to break the August 29th yearly low of 4923 in my opinion as that could possibly happen in this week’s trade.

I will be looking at adding more contracts once the risk/reward become more in your favor as I still think the U.S dollar by far is the strongest currency in the world as we have some of the highest interest rates compared to Europe which has many countries with negative interest rates which is crazy. In my opinion so stay short the Peso as I still think there is room to run to the downside and I do believe that the volatility will start to increase.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

Wheat Futures—Wheat futures in the December contract is currently trading at 4.56 a bushel down another 6 cents as I have been recommending a bearish position originally in the September contract from the 5.04 level and if you took that trade we had to rollover into the December due to expiration last week so place the stop loss on a closing basis only above the 2 week high standing at 4.81 as an exit strategy.

Wheat prices are now trading lower for the 4th consecutive session continuing its bearish momentum to the downside and if you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I thought prices could test the contract low at the May 13th low of 4.42 and I think that could happen in this week’s trade.

The trend is getting stronger and stronger to the downside as the volatility still remains relatively low, however the chart structure will not improve for another 5 trading sessions so you will have to accept the monetary risk at this time.

Wheat prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend clearly is to the downside as ideal weather conditions in the Great Plains part of the United States coupled with the fact of ample worldwide supplies which continues to keep a lid on prices so stay short and continue to place the proper stop loss.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

10 Year Note Futures—The 10 year note in the December contract is hitting a fresh 3 year high this Monday afternoon in Chicago up another 19 ticks at 132 /10 as the yield at the present time stands at 1.44% and looks to head lower in my opinion.

I have been recommending a bullish position from the 128/00 level over the last several months and if you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I think the yield on the 10-year can go all the way down to 1% as there is still significant room to run so stay long as I see no reason to be short the U.S bond market.

The Dow Jones is down about 400 points due to the fact that the U.S. went ahead on Sunday with the new 15% U.S. tariff on $110 billion of Chinese goods while another new 15% tariff will take effect on Dec 15th for another $160 billion of Chinese goods, at which point nearly all U.S. imports from China will be subject to penalty tariffs.

Record low German bund yields are also providing support for T-notes today as the fundamental and technical picture remain bullish. The 10-year note is trading far above its 20 & 100 day moving average as silver, gold, and the U.S Treasury markets all continue their strong bullish trends so stay long as I see no reason to sell.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

Soybean Futures—Soybean futures in the November contract is down 2 cents at 8.67 a bushel in a very quiet Monday afternoon in Chicago continuing its bearish momentum as the down trend line still remains intact. I have been recommending a bearish position from the 8.80 level as this trade has been very stubborn and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss above the 2 week high on a closing basis only at 8.82 as an exit strategy.

For the bearish momentum to continue prices have to break the August 28th low of 8.52 in my opinion as the large managed funds are short soybeans and the entire grain market as they still think lower prices are ahead. Soybean futures are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as clearly this trend remains negative as we await this afternoon’s crop progress report as that certainly should send some volatility back into this market tomorrow.

The trade war with China is certainly escalating as tariffs were put into effect on September 1st as that is a negative influence on soybean prices as they are the number one importer of U.S soybeans as fundamentally and technically speaking this market remains weak.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

Rice Futures—Rice futures in the November contract is trading higher for the 4th consecutive session up another $0.02 at 11.98 as I had been recommending a bearish position from around the 11.38 level getting stopped out in last week’s trade around the 11.70 level as prices have now hit a 4 week high.

Currently I’m sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy as prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is mixed so look at other markets that have a better risk/reward scenario as I still have bearish recommendations in wheat and soybeans.

For the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break the contract high which was hit on July 29th at 12.52 in my opinion as prices rallied significantly off of 2 month lows, but you must have an exit strategy and when prices hit a 2 week high and you have a short position than its time to move on and become neutral.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

Orange Juice Futures—Orange juice futures in the November contract is trading sharply lower for the 2nd consecutive session down another 350 points at 100.25 as Hurricane Dorian has missed key growing regions in the State of Florida sending prices sharply lower.

I had been recommending a bearish position originally in the September contract as we rolled over into the November due to expiration getting stopped out in last weeks trade at the 103.50 level as it is time to become neutral as there is no trend at the present time. Juice prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is lower, however the chart structure is poor so look at other markets that are beginning to trend.

In my opinion if it wasn’t for Hurricane Dorian I think prices would have headed lower, but when prices hit a 2 week high and your short a futures contract it is time to move on and not 2nd guess.

If you have followed any of my previous blogs you understand that I am bearish the agricultural markets as they are mostly lower across the board today as all the interest lies in the precious metals which is sharply higher once again as I’m also recommending a bullish silver position as the trends are coming back in the commodity markets as we could be involved in orange juice once again in the coming weeks ahead.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

Copper Futures—Copper futures in the December contract is trading lower for the 2nd consecutive session down 235 points at 2.5280 hitting a 2 ½ year low continuing its bearish momentum due to the fact that the housing market has slowed down despite the fact that interest rates are right near all-time lows.

At the present time I’m sitting on the sidelines, but I’m looking at a possible short position if prices rally in tomorrows trade as the 2 week high stands at 2.6000 as the chart structure could turn outstanding if prices rally to the 2.56 level as I will then be recommending a short position as the risk would be around $1,000 per contract plus slippage & commission.

Copper prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend clearly is lower coupled with the fact that the downtrend line remains intact as the volatility certainly has come to life and I think that situation is going to remain the same for the rest of 2019 so look to play this to the downside as I see no reason to be a buyer of copper.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

 

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