Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Commrnts For 5-10-19

Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Commrnts For 5-10-19
Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Commrnts For 5-10-19

 

Copper Futures—The highly anticipated trade agreement with China has failed at this time as the U.S has added more tariffs which were supposed to send shock waves throughout many of the commodity sectors, but it fizzled big time as there are very few major reactions in today’s trade.

Copper prices are currently trading at 2.7680 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 2.8190 down about 300 points continuing its bearish momentum as prices are trading right near a 14 week low.

I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 2.8240 level & if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss above the 2 week high which remains at 2.9235, however in next week’s trade the stop loss will be lower therefor the monetary risk will also be reduced.

Copper prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as clearly the trend is to the downside, however we keep bouncing off of major support around the 2.75 level as that has to be broken on a closing basis to continue the bearish momentum as I still believe we can test the contract low around 2.56 in the coming weeks ahead so stay short.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

Ears of golden wheat close up

Wheat Futures—Wheat futures in the July contract is currently trading at 4.29 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 4.38 continuing its bearish momentum as there has been no trade agreement with China which is negative the entire grain sector as that is why you’re seeing much of the complex at fresh yearly lows.

In my opinion I believe wheat prices are probably going to test the $4 level as I see no reason to be bullish at this time as the large money managed funds also agree with me as they are short a record 75,000 contracts as they still believe lower prices are ahead. Wheat prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend clearly is to the downside and if you take a look at the weekly chart the downtrend line remains intact as this bearish trend has strengthened over the last 6 months.

One of the main reasons for the depressed prices in the state of Kansas which is the largest wheat producer in the United States which produced an outstanding crop of around 47 bushels per acre as carryover levels are ample at the present time coupled with weak demand so if you are short a futures contract stay short in my opinion.

The volatility at the present time is extremely low, however I don’t see that situation lasting much longer as we enter the summer months which are always the most volatile for the grain market due to the fact that you can have a weather problem such as drought.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

 

Cattle Futures—Cattle futures in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 113.42 while currently trading at 111.62 down about 180 points for the week hitting 8 month lows as prices have absolutely collapsed since hitting the contract high on March 22nd at 124.90.

The large money managed funds had a record long position as they have absolutely taken a beating on this trade as their liquidation has exaggerated the price to the downside as the next level of support is all the way down at the 107/110 level as it still looks like further weakness lies ahead.

Cattle prices are trading far below their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend is to the downside as the commodity markets in general continue to bleed on a weekly basis as it does not look like a trade agreement with China is in the cards.

The chart structure is terrible at the present time as the risk/ reward is not in your favor as I am currently not involved as I will wait for a better chart pattern to develop, but I see no reason to buy this commodity.

Volatility in cattle is relatively high as I see that situation remaining throughout the summer months, but until the downtrend line is broken I see no reason to be bottom fishing.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

Sugar Futures—Sugar futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 12.01 while currently trading at 11.73 a pound hitting a 7 month low continuing its bearish momentum as the entire soft commodity market remains bearish.

I have been recommending 2 positions to the short side with an average price of 12.06 and if you took those trades continue to place the stop loss above the 2 high standing at 12.75, however in Monday’s trade that will be lowered to 12.39 as the chart structure will improve significantly therefor lowering the monetary risk.

Tuesday’s forecast from Conab that Brazil 2019/20 sugar production will climb by +17.4% as that has been one fundamental factor to push prices lower, but technically speaking this market still looks weak so stay short while making sure that you risk 2%of your account balance on any given trade and that includes the 2nd contract.

Sugar prices broke out of a tight consolidation a couple weeks back as that was one of the main reasons for the recommendation to the downside as a trade agreement with China does not look to be coming to fruition as I see no reason to be a buyer of this commodity as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

Cotton Futures—Cotton futures in the July contract is trading lower for the 5th consecutive session hitting an 18 month low as a trade agreement with China did not occur as that is a very bearish fundamental factor towards prices as China is the largest U.S importer of cotton in the world.

I have been recommending a bearish position from the 75.74 level and if you took that trade the stop loss has now been lowered to 77.33, however the chart structure will improve on a daily basis next week therefor the monetary risk will be reduced as I still think there’s room to run to the downside.

Cotton prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is strong to the downside as the grain market is also hitting multi-year lows reacting bearish off of the crop report which was released this afternoon as I remain bearish all commodities.

As I’ve stated in previous blogs the main reason why I took this trade was that there was a rounding top technical pattern as it worked like a charm as that why you must do your homework and study technical analysis in my opinion.

The volatility in cotton is high as we were almost limit down yesterday which is 300 points as ideal weather conditions in the southern part of the United States is allowing aggressive planting to take place as farmers are also thinking about putting more acres into cotton due to the fact that corn & soybean prices are not profitable.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

Corn Futures—Corn futures in the July contract are sharply lower for the 3rd consecutive session hitting an 8 month low as prices settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.70 while currently trading at 3.48 breaking the contract low of 3.51 as prices look to head lower in my opinion.

I am currently not involved in corn, but I was telling investors who were bullish to place the stop loss under the contract low of 3.51 as an exit strategy as now you should not be long corn or the grain market at this time as the next major level of support is all the way down to the 3.30 area.

The WASDE crop report was released today stating that we have 300 million more bushels of corn than expected coupled with the fact that production numbers in 2019 are predicted to be slightly over 15 billion bushels which were 250 million above estimates as the report was bearish across the board.

Soybean prices have also hit an 11-year low in today’s trade which is also putting pressure on corn, but the main topic today was the fact that the United States and China did not come up with a trade agreement which is very bearish all U.S agricultural products as weak demand and huge carryover numbers continue to plague these markets.

Weather in the  Midwestern part of the United States has been miserable as we rain almost every day with extremely cold temperatures, however the 7/10 day weather forecast shows an ideal weather forecast as planting should be in full swing.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

S&P 500 Futures—The S&P 500 in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2947 while currently trading at 2853 down almost a 100 points for the trading week hitting a 6 week low all due to the fact that there is no trade agreement between the United States and China.

If you had followed any of my previous blogs you understand that I’ve been bullish the stock market forever, but this is why you need an exit strategy as the 2 week low was at 2890 as that’s where you should have been stopped out if you had a bullish position as prices have dropped rather dramatically.

When you trade the commodity markets buying and never getting out is not the way to trade as you must have some type of strategy to exit as mine is if prices hit a 2 week low it’s time to move on.

The S&P 500 is now trading below its 20 but still above its 100 day moving average as the volatility certainly has increased and that’s going to remain the same until we find out more about this trade agreement.

The next major level of support is all the way down at the 2800 area & if that is broken then a bearish trend could develop, however I still have a bullish bias towards the stock market as the U.S economy is outstanding coupled with the fact of strong corporate growth, however I am currently sitting on the sidelines as the risk/reward is not in your favor.

TREND: MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

Coffee Futures—Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 90.60 a pound while currently trading at 98.80 basically unchanged for the week, however a 14 year low was hit on May 7th at 87.60 before rallying slightly on short covering.

At the present time coffee prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend clearly is to the downside as the downtrend line also remains intact as I am currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for some type of bullish trend to develop.

If you take a look at the daily chart the 4 week high stands at 95.25 which is just an eyelash away and if that is touched the downtrend line and the 20 day moving average would be breached due to the outstanding chart structure and the historically low volatility that we are currently experiencing.

The soft commodity markets continue to melt away on a weekly basis as I have short recommendations in sugar and cotton which are at yearly lows as well as I see no reason to be a buyer until the situation between China and the United States on trade comes to a conclusion as the uncertainty has a bearish and negative influence on all prices.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

Oats with ears of cereal

Oat Futures—Oat futures in the July contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2.84 a bushel while currently trading at 2.86 up 2 cents experiencing a wild trading session on May 6th as prices hit a 5 week low at 2.64 only to rally sharply over the rest of the week.

At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines as I am looking at a possible start position in next week’s trade as the entire grain sector continues to hit yearly lows, but the oats remain strong and I think eventually they will start the following wheat to the downside.

In my opinion I think there’s a high probability that the April 29th high of 3.01 will hold so let’s see what Monday’s trade brings as hopefully the chart structure will improve therefor lowering the monetary risk as oat prices look very expensive compared to the rest of the grain market in my opinion.

Prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is higher, but the risk / reward is still in your favor so let’s keep a close eye on this market come Monday as the volatility certainly has increased substantially over the last several weeks and I think that situation will remain the same as we enter the summer months.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

Mexican Peso—The Mexican Peso in the June contract finished up 35 points currently trading at 5212 as I have been recommending a bearish position from the 5177 level while placing the stop loss above most recent high which was hit on April 18th at 5287 as the risk was around $550 per contract plus slippage & commission as the chart structure is outstanding at the present time.

In my opinion the risk/reward are highly in your favor as the next level of support is around the 51 area as I also have a bullish U.S dollar recommendation at the current time as it looks to me that the Peso has topped out.

At the present time the Peso is trading below its 20 day but still above its 100 day moving average with stands at critical support around the 5120 level so play this to the downside while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the trend has turned south.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

Orange Juice Futures—Orange juice futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 93.90 while currently trading at 95.85 finishing the week on a positive note up over 200 points, however this market still remains bearish in my opinion.

If you’re short a futures contract I would place the stop loss above the 2 week high which now stands at 102.70 as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis therefor lowering the monetary risk.  Most of the soft commodities were lower in today’s trading session as no agreement on trade between China & the U.S has a negative influence on all agricultural markets.

Juice prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend remains negative, but I still think there’s a chance prices could trade down to the 75 level as weak demand and high inventory levels so stay short & place a proper stop loss.

Seasonably speaking this time of year for orange juice generally heads lower as harvest pressure generally occurs coupled with the fact that there’s no chance for frost in the state of Florida.

TREND: LOWER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: LOW

 

TRADING THEORY—-Trade with the short term trend, as the saying goes in futures trading the trend is your friend but sometimes you will be a market that is trending higher and then has a false breakout to the upside and then suddenly sells off causing you a 2% loss on your equity and you say to yourself that was a bad trade and should I do something different on my next trade.

If it was up to me I would continue to buy strength and sell weakness because in the long run commodity trading is about percentages of success in the long run, and if you go with the path of least resistance more often than not you will have the probabilities of success on your side.

I define a trend as a commodity hitting a 20 day high or low as a trendy market, if the market is in a consolidation stay away from it and find something that is trending.up or down and go in that direction remembering the money management rules of 2% maximum loss if you are wrong.

 

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

 

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