Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Report For 7-2-20

Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Report For 7-2-20
Mike Seery’s Daily Commodity Report For 7-2-20

S&P 500 Futures—The S&P 500 in the September contract is trading higher for the 4th consecutive session reacting very positively to the unemployment number which was released today stating that the United States added 4.8 million jobs sending prices up 41 points currently trading at 3,144 or 1.33% higher.

If you’ve been following my previous blogs you understand that I am not involved, but I do have a bullish bias as I do think the equity markets will continue to move higher as I see no reason to be short as the Nasdaq-100 which has hit another all-time high in today’s trade.

The S&P 500 is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend has turned to the upside as the U.S economy will not shut down again and the market is reacting to that fundamental news as the worst most likely is over with as I do believe the 3,400 level will be tested which was the all-time high hit on February 20th in the coming months ahead.

If you are long a futures contract stay long as another bullish fundamental factor is that the Federal Reserve might add another stimulus package as they have certainly helped propel this market to the upside as the old saying goes you don’t fight the FED as this market looks to move even higher. 

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

Platinum Futures— Platinum futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 819 while currently trading at 829 an ounce up slightly for the trading week holding major support around the 800 level as this market looks to move higher in my opinion.

Fundamentally speaking platinum is used as an industrial metal and the stronger the U.S economy becomes the more demand for platinum which generally pushes prices higher and I think that situation is going to come about soon as I do think a bottoming out pattern has formed.

I will be recommending a bullish position if prices break the 876 level which could possibly happen in next week’s trade, however if you are already long a futures contract I would place the stop loss under major support around the 798 level as an exit strategy.

Platinum prices are now trading right at their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend still remains mixed as we have gone sideways over the last 4 weeks as my only precious metal recommendation is in the silver market at the current time, but I think the whole sector is going to move higher as I see no reason to be short platinum at this time so keep a close eye on this market as we could be involved soon. 

TREND:MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

 

 

 

What’s the difference between old crop & new crop in the agricultural commodities? When analysts and traders talk about agricultural commodities such as soybeans & corn the one thing they generally mention is old crop versus new crop and that might confuse some beginners on what exactly is the difference.

I will keep it simple because the only difference between old crop and new crop is that old crop in soybeans is any month other than November as an example is March or May and all months that were grown last year while the new crop is the November soybeans and will be harvested this October of 2019 and will be grown this summer.

That’s why sometimes there is a price difference between the old crop and the new crop because of the fact that this year’s harvest in soybeans could be as high as 4.1 billion bushels pushing prices lower in the November contract as old crop and new crop can also have different carryover levels or supply levels.

Old crop corn is any month other than the December contract while the new crop is only the December contract which will be grown this summer and harvested in October and sometimes there’s a price difference between old crop and new crop as well because as we will be harvesting around 14 billion bushels in October which is the reason why the December corn can be lower than the May corn because that was old crop which was harvested last October also having a different supply situation.

Many of the agricultural commodities are affected by old crop & new crop including the grains, meats, coffee, and cotton so if you need help understanding which month you should be trading feel free to give me a call at any time & I will be more than happy to make sure that you are trading the correct month.

 

 

 

Cotton Futures—Cotton futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 59.50 while currently trading at 62.60 down slightly this Thursday afternoon breaking a 3 day winning streak, however prices are still hovering right near a 4 month high.

I have been recommending a bullish position from the 62.20 level while placing the stop-loss under the June 23rd low of 58.55 as the risk was around $1,700 per contract plus slippage and commission as a breakout to the upside has occurred in my opinion. The USDA crop report which was released earlier in the week stated that the United States only planted 12.19 million acres as estimates were 13.15 as we should not produce a record crop in 2020 as the fundamental and technical picture for this commodity has turned to the upside coupled with the fact that demand is coming back from China.

Mexico also announced that their production of cotton will be the lowest since 2017 adding more fuel to the fire as the 7/10 weather forecast has higher than normal temperatures coupled with below average rainfall so stay long as there is room to run.

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

 

 

 

Coffee Futures—Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 96.65 while currently trading at 103.00 having one of its best weeks since March as prices have now hit a 4 week high. Coffee prices are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as I’m not convinced the bottom is at hand, however many commodity sectors have started to rally as there is the possibility that coffee has finally bottomed at a 14-year low.

At the current time the risk / reward is not in your favor to take a bullish position as I believe it is time to be neutral, but keep a close eye on this sleeping giant as a long-term bottom may have been formed finally. Fundamentally speaking prices moved higher with arabica coffee at a 1-month high and robusta coffee at a 2-week high on signs of smaller global coffee supplies as the International Coffee Organization (ICO) on Wednesday reported that global Oct-Jun coffee exports fell -4.7% y/y to 83.8 mln bags.

At the current time my only soft commodity recommendation is a bullish cotton trade which is right near a 4 month high, but it looks to me with all the stimulus packages that the Federal Reserve has put in place that will push commodity prices higher going forward. 

TREND:MIXED

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: INCREASING

 

 

 

Corn Futures— Corn futures in the December contract is currently trading lower by 4 cents at 3.56 breaking a 3-day winning streak after settling last Friday in Chicago at 3.25 up over $0.30 for the week all off of the USDA crop report which stated 92 million acres were planted as that was well below estimates. Fundamentally speaking  the 7/10 day forecast now has 90 degree temperatures across the board as we’re starting to enter the volatile month of July as weather is the main dictator of short-term price action going forward.

At the current time I do not have any grain recommendations, but a possible bottom may have happened, however the risk/reward is not in your favor as the chart structure is terrible so I will be patient and wait for a better chart pattern to develop.

Corn prices are trading above their 20 & 100 day moving average for the 1st time in months as the commodity markets are starting to show some signs of life. Most of this rally is due to the fact that the large money managed funds were short 285,000 contracts as they covered the majority of that over the last several days so be patient as we could be involved in this market possibly next week on some type of price retracement.

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

Gold Futures— Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,780 while currently trading at 1,788 an ounce in a holiday shortened trading week continuing it’s bullish momentum as prices did crack the critical 1,800 level earlier in the week.

At the current time I am not involved as my only precious metal recommendation is a bullish silver trade, however I do have a bullish bias as I do think gold prices will crack the 2,000 level and if you are long a futures contract I would place the stop-loss at the 10-day low standing at 1,753 as an exit strategy as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time.

Gold prices are trading above their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend remains to the upside as prices still finished about $9 higher today despite the fact that the jobs number came out adding 4.8 million jobs which is remarkable in my opinion as that is generally a bearish fundamental factor, but there is a lot of demand for gold at the present time.

The Federal Reserve continues to promise that they will add more liquidity to the system with another possible 1 or 2 trillion-dollar stimulus package on the way as that should continue to push gold higher so stay long as I see no reason to be short.

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

 

Live Cattle Futures—Cattle futures in the August contract have broken out to the upside as prices  are now near a 5-week high as I am now recommending a bullish position from around the 99.80 level and if you took this trade continue to place the stop loss at 93.57 as the risk is around $2,500 per contract plus slippage and commission.

If you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I have been waiting for a breakout to occur as it happened in today’s trade coupled with the fact that a possible rounding bottom chart pattern may have developed as well so play this to the upside as I do believe the risk/reward is in your favor.

The United States released its unemployment number this morning as we added 4.8 million jobs as there is a lot of optimism going forward about the U.S economy and that is bullish cattle prices and many other commodity sectors as I think the worst could be over with as the next major level of resistance is around the 102 area which could be tested in next weeks trade.

The volatility certainly has expanded as we almost experienced a limit up trade today so make sure you risk only 2% of your account balance on any given trade and if the $2,500 is too much risk wait for some type of pull back before entering therefor lowering the monetary risk.

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

Silver Futures—Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 18.16 while currently trading at 18.37 while experiencing a wild trading week as we will be closed tomorrow due to the 4th of July holiday weekend.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 18.61 level so continue to place the stop loss at the 17.17 area, however that will be raised in next week’s trade therefor the monetary risk will also be reduced. The monthly unemployment number was released today showing that America added 4.8 million jobs as that is a positive fundamental factor towards silver prices as this commodity is used as an industrial metal and the stronger the economy that means more demand for silver as I still remain bullish.

Silver prices are above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend remains to the upside as the entire precious metals sector across-the-board I believe will move higher as I’m keeping a close eye on platinum as well. Volatility in silver is now becoming higher and higher on a weekly basis so if you are involved make sure that you only risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the proper money management technique as silver can experience huge price swings on a daily basis causing high risk. 

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com 

TWITTER—@seeryfutures 

 Email: mseery@seeryfutures.com

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