Coffee Futures—Coffee futures in the December contract is trading lower for the 2nd consecutive session down 1.4% or 150 points at 97.50 a pound as prices have now hit a 4 week low.
Fundamentally speaking larger global supplies weighed on coffee prices after the National Federation of Columbian Coffee Growers reported Friday that Columbia September coffee production rose +4% y/y to 1.1 mln bags while abundant supplies are bearish for coffee prices after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported Tuesday that global 2018/19 coffee exports during Oct-Aug rose +9.2% y/y to 120.3 mln bags.
I have been recommending a bullish position from the 101 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss at the 14-year low standing at 93.40 as an exit strategy as this trade has been very stubborn over the last several weeks.
Coffee prices are now trading under their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend may have turned, but I will not 2nd guess and I will continue to place the proper stop-loss hoping that the 14-year low stands. At the current time my only other soft commodity recommendation is a bullish cotton trade as the volatility in many sectors remains extremely low.
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